ISLAMABAD – Near-normal rainfall and normal to below-normal day temperatures are likely in Pakistan during August 2024.
Per the synoptic situation, the neutral phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is expected to shift to a weak negative phase (La Niña) at the end of the month. The neutral phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) prevails.
Under these weather conditions, the climatic outlook of Pakistan in August is as follows:
Monthly Rainfall Outlook: Overall a tendency for near-normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the country. However, northeastern Punjab and southeastern Sindh may get slightly above-normal rainfall during August 2024.
Monthly Temperature Outlook: The daytime maximum temperatures are expected to remain normal to below normal over most of the country. However, northern parts (Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan), will remain warmer than normal.
Concurrently, warmer-than-normal minimum temperatures are expected nationwide with maximum departure over Gilgit-Baltistan and southwestern Balochistan.
Impacts: Isolated and localized extreme rainfall events can trigger flash flooding in mountainous areas of Punjab, Azad Jammu and Kashmir, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, urban flooding in big metropolitan areas, hill torrents in Southern Punjab, and Balochistan.
Above normal temperatures in mountainous areas of Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir may accelerate snowmelt, increasing inflow in the Upper Indus and Kabul Rivers, along with the chance of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs).
Due to extreme hydro-meteorological events over catchments, riverine floods are expected in major rivers of the country. Current atmospheric conditions may trigger dust storms and thunderstorms posing risks to crops, buildings, and infrastructure in the region.
Sufficient water availability for irrigation and power sectors will have a good impact. Dengue outbreak due to stagnant water is likely in inundated areas.
