THE insurgency in Balochistan is rapidly intensifying, presenting significant challenges for Pakistan’s national security.
With no clear resolution in sight, it is becoming increasingly crucial to thoroughly examine the underlying factors driving the conflict and evaluate potential strategies for its resolution.
Building on my extensive experience with the Pakistan Army and its premier intelligence agency, coupled with my frequent interactions with security professionals, internationally, this article serves as a continuation of my previous article published in the Pakistan Observer on March 19, 2025.
Balochistan, strategically located at the crossroads of South Asia, Central Asia and the Middle East, holds immense importance for global trade, particularly due to its proximity to the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite being rich in natural resources, the region remains underdeveloped, sparsely populated and entangled in crises, including protests and separatist movements.
The failure to capitalize on its strategic location is largely due to foreign interventions driven by so-called, the “Great Game” competition for Central Asian resources and sea routes.
Domestically, the tribal structure and assertions about political oppression, resource exploitation and colonial policies, have deepened grievances, giving foreign powers opportunities to exploit.
Sardars and Nawabs are criticized for hindering education and poverty alleviation to maintain control.
The central government is accused of covertly backing pro-establishment tribal leaders and manipulating elections for its benefit.
The Baloch intelligentsia rejects this leadership, supporting nationalist groups instead.
Economic stagnation, few job opportunities and worsening law and order are pushing disillusioned youth to join the separatist groups, fuelling insurgencies.
Secession movements in Baluchistan trace back to the time when the Muslim League, led by M.A.Jinnah, advocated for an independent Muslim State after the end of British rule in 1947.
As Baluchistan largely supported Pakistan, Congress started promoting separatism to prevent the region from joining Pakistan, marking India’s early involvement in fuelling separatist sentiments.
The Baloch separatist movement gained significant momentum in the 1960s following the 1956 Constitution, which curtailed provincial autonomy and introduced the controversial ‘One Unit’ concept.
This move fuelled unrest, which escalated throughout the 1970s, particularly after a military operation launched by the government in 1973.
However, the insurgency began to wane in the subsequent years, especially after the creation of four distinct provinces and the abolition of the Sardari system.
The current wave of insurgency in Baluchistan began in 2003, with the Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) spearheading attacks on security forces, civilians and educational institutions.
The insurgency gained momentum in 2005, primarily driven by protests over resource control and the development of the Gwadar Port.
Nawab Akbar Bugti opposed the project, demanding local benefits, but poor political handling by politicians affiliated with the government, led to a military operation resulting into his death in 2006.
The death of several senior army officers, along with Mr.Bugti, who had entered the cave for negotiations on his initiative, due to a blast at the cave’s entrance raised serious questions about who was responsible for the attack.
The incident reignited the separatist movement, shifting it from rural to urban areas and involving women and children, drawing international attention.
It transformed Baloch factions, turning moderates into separatists and strengthening their cause.
Leaders like Nawab Akbar Bugti and Brahamdagh Bugti, once in contact with the Establishment, were pushed to adopt hardline stances.
Today’s moderate Baloch leaders face similar pressures, with a growing middle class, including women, joining militant groups, some becoming suicide bombers.
Nearly two decades of insurgency show the failure of harsh measures to suppress opposition.
All episodes seem to revolve around Western think tanks suggesting the creation of independent states in regions like Baluchistan, including Iranian part of Baluchistan and Pashtun-majority areas in Afghanistan/Pakistan to control trade routes and access to natural resources.
As per the reports, the Baloch conflict became a key element of US South Asia strategy by late 2011, with some think tanks backing Baloch insurgents to limit China’s access to the Gwadar port.
Indian intelligence agencies have been supporting the Baluchistan insurgency, operating from Iran and Afghanistan.
Afghanistan has also been providing sanctuary and training to Baloch dissidents, particularly in Kabul and Kandahar.
In 2006, Brahamdagh Bugti fled to Afghanistan before relocating himself in Switzerland.
Indian officials hosted Baloch leaders in Delhi to push for a government-in-exile, but the effort faltered due to opposition from key Baloch leaders.
Allegedly, Indian resident agents, working undercover as corporate officials in Afghanistan, were linked to deadly attacks in Pakistan, including the attacks on a political gathering in Baluchistan and a school in Peshawar that killed hundreds.
Our national security has increasingly weakened due to strategic exploitation of our internal susceptibilities by foreign adversaries, necessitating all out efforts to sever the connection between foreign threats and domestic fragility.
We need to shield the core to safe the whole.
Marginalizing the nationalist movement and relying on aggressive operations by the security forces will not ensure lasting peace.
Sustainable peace requires confidence-building, security reforms and a platform for defining post-conflict terms.
Resolving the Baluchistan insurgency calls for political negotiations, a shift from hard-line policies, addressing development issues, reducing federal control and upholding democracy and human rights.
Power should rest with genuine representatives, with more Baloch participation in resource management.
All illegally detained individuals should be released or presented in courts immediately.
Since the army and ISI are often blamed for abductions, they must investigate each case and make the facts public to end the blame game.
The people of Baluchistan and KP overwhelmingly supported the creation of Pakistan in 1947.
The participation of tribal lashkers from Waziristan in the 1948 operations for liberation of (Azad) Jammu & Kashmir is a source of pride for Kashmiris.
We must resist being swayed by agendas driven by vested interests and prioritize decisions that safeguard our national security.
To counter foreign interference, we must stand united as one nation.
—The writer is Security Professional, entrepreneur and author, based in Dubai, UAE.
