Hamid Asghar Khan
The provenance and origins of Covid-19 remain shrouded in mystery as the uncertainty governing a second wave, mutation of the strain, and possibility of re-infections persist. This outbreak has virtually compelled mankind to lock itself away, it has no known cure and guesstimates of when a vaccine will be ready are too speculative to be mentioned.
As the world grapples with COVID-19, discussions regarding the shape of things to come have been initiated, even as debates rage over the ‘correct’ way of handling this global outbreak. Governance The Moroccan local government system led by the Waalis, Governors, and Mayors has done an admirable job of not only enforcing the lockdown, but also in ensuring an ample supply of daily use products for citizens across the Kingdom. Most importantly the state has been able to reach out and assist the most needy and vulnerable members of society.
A commission for the devolution of powers has since long been striving to strengthen and empower local governments, so that regions have the capacity and means to better address the requirements of communities in a localized area. The benefits of smaller, independent and self-sustaining administrative units, more in touch with, and better able to respond to local requirements are beyond question.
Every nation has done its best to respond. The methodology, speed and intensity of response has varied, based on threat perception and advice of medical experts, but also based on compulsions arising out of peculiar local conditions and the vision, will and capacity of the State to respond and enforce its writ.
The Moroccan response was immediate, effective, unfaltering and assertive, which has paid dividends in keeping infection rates low. The policies flowing from the top were seamlessly implemented across the Kingdom. Being immediate neighbors of some of the worst hit European nations, the Kingdom was quick to shut down all flights and sea connectivity. The absolute lockdown enforced since 20th of March has been professionally enforced with security forces arresting over 75,000 individuals who violated stay at home orders. To the credit of the national media and civil society, they have unquestioningly supported the state in its remarkable efforts to ensure collective wellbeing.
His Majesty the King also being the ‘Ameer ul Momineen’, ordered all mosques closed for all prayers in the larger public interest. The decision has been obeyed in letter and spirit, indicating high levels of education and discipline in a country that is 99% Muslim. With the advent of Ramadan a 7pm to 5 am curfew has further been imposed. The National Covid-19 Relief Fund boasts a healthy balance of $ 3.3 billion, almost entirely raised within the Kingdom, within a few days. Major corporate groups and wealthy individuals led by His Majesty himself were the first to contribute.
Drift from Globalization Since the end of WW-2, the world has witnessed an ever more globalized, interconnected and interdependent world. Materialism and conspicuous consumption along with commensurate pollution and exploitation of natural resources had reached a peak with no signs of abating. Mankind has been cavalier and insouciant while disposing off toxic waste while simultaneously exploiting the earth without thought for detrimental degradation.
President Trumps ‘America first’ move was the first sign of a change. Brexit became the second bombshell that created shockwaves and raised question marks on the collective European project. Now there is an expression of angst emerging from loud voices in Italy, who feel they had been left alone by Europe in the face of the crisis. As countries confront the global pandemic, the natural instinct for self-preservation has kicked in.
The initial squabbling over masks, medicines and frenzied search for ventilators, along with attempts to outbid friends and allies has triggered what may perhaps be a lasting “country first’ and more insular approach to relations between States marking the beginning of a new phase in global relations.
Travel & Tourism The impact on convenience, cost and prerequisites of international travel are certain to be profound. Prior medical testing, fewer flights, more expensive tickets, socially distanced seating and even quarantining requirements at the destination lie within the realm of possibility.
The enduring impact on travel can in no way be underestimated. The global leisure and tourism industry will also take an enormous hit in the short to medium term. Economies used to the influx of huge numbers of tourists will have to brace for the impact as hotel rooms remain un-booked and restaurants and souvenir shops remain near empty.
A recession has set in the global economy, and hardly any sector or country shall escape unscathed. Globalization and interdependencies will in this case trigger an adverse, negative chain reaction, having a slowing down effect as people, corporations and governments reduce spending to focus on essentials. Less demand, less exports, less production, resulting in less employment.
Stimulus In such a situation the extraordinary stimulus package announced by Prime Minister Imran Khan for the construction industry is a timely and beneficial step. This will benefit a host of allied industries such as cement, wood, steel, brick and finishing products in addition to generating employment. With an existing housing deficit of almost 10 million units, real demand exists and can be met through this timely initiative which will generate significant economic activity.
Exports Exports are also going to face severe challenges as Europe, one of our prime markets, has been particularly hard hit, and many orders have been cancelled or are on hold. With the crash of the global oil market, the middle east also faces a waning cashflow as economies are heavily reliant on robust oil and gas revenues. The glut accumulated over the current phase will take time to dry up, and with a global recession in full effect, reduced demand indicates that no high oil revenues may be anticipated soon.
Migrants & Remittances Pakistan is also faced with the prospect of the return of large numbers of overseas workers, especially from the Middle East where roughly half the populations consist of migrant workers. This along with a commensurate drop in remittances shall present yet another challenge. From the middle east alone, it is feared a few hundred thousand are likely to make a one-way trip back home in the coming months.
SME’s There is an opportunity to assist these individuals by pro-actively crafting a plan to bolster the small and medium enterprise sector that is the backbone of any economy. Few if any new jobs would be available to absorb them in the short term as a dreaded decrease of employment in the domestic industrial sector is also anticipated. In a phase when foreign investment is likely to be ever more difficult to come by as economies struggle with their internal pressures, the importance of forging ahead with CPEC projects becomes ever more important for both job creation and stimulating growth.
Population Our ‘youth bulge’ and ‘potential demographic dividend’ have frequently remained the subject of debate. Now is a good time for us to recognize that an unchecked population is not in our long-term interest. Indeed, the first step in China’s economic miracle was the difficult, but ultimately beneficial step of limiting the size of the family.
[The author is a Diplomat serving as Ambassador of Pakistan to the Kingdom of Morocco.]
