Zeenia Satti
PDM strategy is to belittle Imran khan by describing him as a puppet whose strings are held by the military elite. By criticizing the military directly, PDM hopes to pressurize the Generals into removing Imran from office. Cognizant of the fact that they are unlikely to inspire a mass movement with momentum that makes government fall, PDM is looking to the military to remove either Imran Khan or his entire government by creating a compelling reason for the Generals; rousing masses against the institution of the military at a time when drums of war are being beaten in India. Lack of domestic support can hamper professional operability of strongest of militaries. Hence, the PDM is really saying “Move against Imran Khan or we will continue to remind Pakistani masses of how nation has suffered because of your past transgressions. We will hit where you are vulnerable, at a time you can ill afford it.”
Hence the speeches of political elite are consistently hostile towards the very institution of the military, from the days of Ayub Khan to date. The military is blamed for splitting the country in two, for murdering ZAB, for purchasing state of the art weaponry but using it against own people instead of India and in this historic account, the cardinal sin of facilitating Imran Khan to power is described so as to render its veracity also unquestionable. PDM conveniently does not remind masses that Imran Khan’s popularity as opposition figure shot up after Raymond Davis was freed from Lahore instead of being tried for the crime he had committed. At the time, Punjab was ruled by PML (N) and the federal government was that of PPP.
Compelling the military to move against IK or risk masses being roused against their own military is also aimed at preempting Martial Law when and if IK govt is removed prematurely. The military will prefer either mid-term election, or government of national unity in which the opposition would play a significant decision making role, ending latter’s economic hunt. Military faces Catch 22. If it aids the government suppress PDM, it risks mass sentiment going against it because the government is truly unpopular. It is, above all, the rising price of food that makes people disapprove of government. If the military lets PDM hold rallies in the hope they would lose steam eventually, it must bear the speeches that are calibrated to shame their very institution. Eventually, the rank and file of the military could be impacted, endangering the discipline of the entire institution.
On the other hand, if the military moves against Imran Khan, and facilitates early election, it risks Nawaz Sharif’s party coming into power again. Nawaz Sharif has proven himself to be clear and concise danger to Pakistan because of his immature style of politicking. He commenced a treason trial against General Musharraf and put the entire military institution in a quandary. If the general underwent the trial, in his defence he would have to divulge matters that must remain confidential in the interest of national security. Pakistan is in a state of war. US’ Afghan war started when Musharraf was in power. There are many issues in this scenario that military had to handle in the best interest of Pakistan, voicing which could alienate the US and her allies. Small countries handle big powers with dexterity wherein discretion remains the better part of valour. Openly humiliating big powers is not an option. Asif Ali Zardari understood this and even though Benazir had been killed on Musharraf’s watch, he did not embroil Musharraf in a treason case and desists from venting personal grudge against Musharraf. Secondly, Nawaz Sharif ordered the military into Karachi operation and FATA operation. It is Nawaz Sharif who is now accusing the military of using weaponry against own people. It appears Nawaz Sharif ordered both operations with mala fide. The above are just few of the reasons that make PML (N) unacceptable for Rawalpindi. Pakistanis too seem leery of where civil military relations might go if PML (N) is back in power.
That leaves Pakistan’s People’s Party better off. It has consistently refrained from voicing hostility towards Pakistan’s military despite suffering terrible setbacks during military rule, huge tragedies even. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, for instance, accused the USA and the CIA for his removal, but never incited the masses against Pak military. Alluding to the role of the Zionist lobby and the American CIA in his persecution, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto famously said “This is not a PNA conspiracy, or a GHQ conspiracy, this is a fascist conspiracy against the Islamic state of Pakistan.” Similarly, when Benazir Bhutto returned to Pakistan in 1986 to a hero’s welcome, she didn’t make hostile speeches against General Zia. She insisted on burying the hatchet and upholding democracy as the best revenge. Asif Zardari showed similar caution after Benazir was killed. The mass sentiment at the time was such that if he wanted, he could have played havoc with President Musharraf’s regime. Zardari prepared for election instead and after forming federal government, gave Musharraf a dignified send off. Zardari ruled intelligently. He had to handle the USA, a superpower at war in Afghanistan and using Pakistan’s territory for the operation. Zardari let the US carry out drone strikes in FATA because he was afraid if he resisted, the US would use its resources to undermine his government. Navigating his tenure thus, Zardari embarked on a series of visits to China during which he envisioned the CPEC, a game changer for Pakistan. The fact that Zardari managed to do so during the time the entire Western Alliance was present next to Pakistan is a marvel. History will judge Zardari far better than present times (which require erudite leadership). The evolving scenario makes situation increasingly difficult for Imran Khan. If IK governed better, things would be smoother. The PTI government will find its political space increasingly shrinking. Government’s allies will leave and the military will find its policy of no overt interference in politics not feasible. Imran’s government could end prematurely. Will the end of PTI government also mean the end of civil era in Pakistan?
— The writer is the Executive Director at Pakistan’s People Led Disaster Management.
