Just before the inauguration of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the USA, the brutal Israeli onslaught on Ghaza came to a stop. The guns in the 15-month Israeli Palestinian war have fallen silent and an uneasy ceasefire has finally come into force. Does this mean peace in Palestine or is it just a temporary and fleeting breathing space for the beleaguered long suffering Palestinians? The Israeli Palestinian conflict is far from over, it is only the first phase in the three phase ceasefire agreement signed by the two adversaries in the conflict. It is yet to be seen how serious Israel is and will it now complete the other two phases of the agreement and agree to a complete withdrawal of its forces from Ghaza? Even after the an-nouncement of the ceasefire, Israeli forces continued their shelling resulting in many casual-ties in the Ghaza civil population.
During the last15 months, nearly 50,000 citizens of Ghaza have been massacred and over two hundred thousand have been injured. Dead bodies are still lying under the debris of the buildings razed to the ground by the Israeli bombardment and the most tragic victims have been children. Palestinian citizens have now begun the process of returning to remains of what was once home for them. Hats off to the resilience and bravery of the Palestinians. In spite of the hellish conditions they have endured thousands of them came out on the streets of their devastated land and their shattered homes to welcome and celebrate the ceasefire. Israel and her supporters have failed miserably to break the Palestinian spirit or to even end the resistance to Israel. Hamas, the political master of Ghaza and the main resis-tance group, which initiated the present war on 7 October 2023 is already taking charge of the Ghaza Enclave. Hamas militant fighters are coming out of their hiding places and estab-lishing control over the territory and it is quite apparent that, despite their best efforts, Is-rael has not been able to eliminate their main adversary i.e. Hamas. According to news re-ports more and younger Palestinians are flocking to join the ranks of Hamas to replace the Hamas fighters who have fallen during the 15-month siege by Israel.
Achieving a ceasefire between the two belligerents was a very tricky and thorny exercise. This ceasefire agreement came about by the efforts of many countries and their leaders par-ticularly Egypt, Qatar and the USA. Negotiations went on continuously for months and months trying to convince and pressurize Israel to withdraw its forces from the occupied areas and the breakthrough finally came just before the inauguration of Donald Trump in Washington DC. The draft of the present treaty is the same draft that was introduced in May last year that the Israeli Government had refused to accept and continued with its hard stance until now.
Reasons for the change of heart by the Israeli Premier are still shrouded in mystery, it could be the pressure, exerted by Donald Trump, forced them to accept the ceasefire because Trump had said that all hell will break loose if hostages were not released before he took charge. The breakthrough came when the American negotiator and special envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff applied pressure on Netanyahu to agree to the ceasefire in return for more American military and economic aid. The first part of this deal is a six-week ceasefire and the exchange three Israeli hostages in Hamas custody and 90 Pales-tinian fighters held by Israel. Over all 33 Israeli prisoners and 100 Palestinians will be freed over the next six weeks. The second phase of the agreement aims to have complete with-drawal of the Israeli forces from Ghaza and a permanent ceasefire. The third phase will be the reconstruction phase lasting three to five years in which Ghaza will be rebuilt. The Ghaza ceasefire is fragile and fleeting. The Israeli Government under the influence of its far right party may renege and refuse to abide on the second phase and this could end all hopes of peace in the region and the war could be reignited in all its ferocity.
All eyes are on the new Trump Administration to see if it allows the ceasefire agreement to fail. During his first presidency, Trump brokered deals between Arab countries, bringing them closer to Israel. However, the Gaza crisis derailed those efforts. Saudi Arabia insists on an independent Palestinian state before normalizing relations with Israel and it remains un-clear if the Trump Administration will push for the two-state solution. Some in his cabinet support Israeli annexation of the West Bank, which could end the two-state solution and prolong the conflict. While the ceasefire offers fragile relief, it presents a critical opportunity for global leaders to address the longstanding demands for justice, dignity and self-determination for Palestinians, ensuring this moment leads to lasting peace rather than re-newed violence.
—The writer is Professor of History, based in Islamabad.
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