Observer Report
Islamabad
In a recently-released report, the Asian Development Bank estimated that as many as 2.3 million young people in Pakistan may have lost their jobs during the lockdown period.
The report titled “Tackling the Covid-19 Youth Employment Crisis in Asia and the Pacific” found that the employment prospects of the region’s 660 million young people were severely challenged.
The report said that job loss among youth will continue throughout 2020 and could result in youth unemployment rates doubling in countries.
“Between 10 and 15 million youth jobs (full-time equivalent) may be lost across 13 countries in Asia and the Pacific in 2020,” the report said. The reports estimates were based on expected fall in output and consequent decrease in labour demand for the year relative to a non-Covid-19 scenario.
Both large and small countries were included in ADB’s estimate from countries such as India and Indonesia, as well as small ones such as Fiji and Nepal. The projected rise in youth unemployment rates, according to the report varies from country to country, but increases are expected for all countries.
In Cambodia, Fiji, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines and Thailand, youth unemployment rates are expected to reach at least double the 2019 estimates even in a scenario of short Covid-19 containment, the ADB said.
“A longer containment period will naturally result in higher job losses. For most countries, a 6-month period would reach into September because containment started near the beginning of April. In the 6-month scenario, job losses for youth may equal 6.1 million in India, followed by Pakistan with 2.3 million. Indonesia may see lower job losses (1.9 million) than Pakistan, despite the former having a larger youth workforce,” the report said.
It added that this is likely the result of higher concentrations of youth in badly hit sectors and lower labour productivity in Pakistan.
The report added that young people in the 13 countries may lose the equivalent of 9.9 million jobs in 2020 under the three-month scenario.
The report states, that the largest losses are expected in countries with the largest workforce, but the start date of serious containment measures and the severity of restrictions also have an important impact.
“In India, the equivalent of 4.1 million youth jobs may be lost, followed by Pakistan with 1.5 million. These countries not only have a larger population and workforce, but they also imposed stringent containment measures and did so early, in the latter half of March. As containment measures have continued to be in force after three months in many countries, despite some relaxation, the short containment results are best viewed as a lower bound of job losses,” the report states.
