THE United States has shown a tendency to initially disregard its adversaries but as tensions escalates, it tends to overestimate the capabilities and threats posed by these adversaries. This pattern is evident in the US-China relationship as well. Geographic distance fosters a sense of security, while increased connectivity allows for a better understanding of adversaries, leading to varied perceptions of them by Americans. As the US draws closer to China, it increasingly perceives China as a dangerous country and responds by boosting military spending to counter this perceived threat.
Surprisingly, China, despite its significant geographic proximity, refrains from direct combat. Russia has recently resurged and presents a challenge to the US, exerting influence in Central Asia and the Caucasus and potentially absorbing Moldova. However, Russia’s ambition to annex the Baltic States or dominate western nations has not been realized. Should Russia succeed in absorbing the Baltic States and garnering allies in Central European countries, such as Serbia, Bulgaria, Greece, or Slovakia, the rivalry between the US and Russia will intensify, posing greater dangers.
Russia’s westward movement is driven by a fear of western attacks, and its interests span from the Balkans to the Baltics, with a particular focus on areas beyond the Carpathians, which have historically been the site of conflicts. In contrast, the US favours naval dominance and views Russia’s potential to deploy substantial naval forces in the Atlantic and Pacific as potentially offensive. Consequently, the US retains control over air and naval forces, relying on allied ground forces for major engagements.
The outcome of the conflict will be influenced not only by these factors but also by Russian military power and the US response to Russian actions. Certain European nations, like Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania, may align themselves with the United States to resist Russian advances in the Carpathians and beyond, potentially shifting the front line from Germany, as it was during the Cold War, to the Carpathian Mountains.
Russia’s strategic depth is crucial, and its main objective is to create distance between itself and potential adversaries west of the Carpathians. This conflict is likely to unfold further east compared to past conflicts. China, which once aligned with Russia, is expected to remain uninvolved this time. Additionally, Russia faces pressure from both the US and Turkey in the northern region of the Caucasus. Russia’s population size is currently small and declining, and internal pressures may divert its attention from the West, possibly leading to a non-violent resolution. Demographic challenges also afflict Europe and America, but they have managed to overcome them through technological advancement, which Russia lacks.
The US’s technological superiority is aided by its willingness to share technology with its allies. Historically, Russia has engaged in wars relying on manpower, leading to collapses in 1917 and 1991 due to manpower shortages and inability to match American military technology. The conflict in Ukraine has exposed Russia to a conventional conflict requiring significant troop deployments and resulting in substantial casualties. Despite this, the Russian military has displayed resilience.
The US, however, tends to exaggerate Russian power in its engagement in war. To achieve its goals, Russia aims to expand its western borders, creating more distance from adversaries. This effort is constrained by the size of its population and the significant number of men required for armed conflict. To understand Russia’s vulnerabilities and aspirations is crucial for predicting outcomes in the evolving dynamics of US-Russia relations. This is very necessary to practical insight; focus on keen observations of events and then analysis them. Attempting to make calculations without this understanding would be futile.
—The writer, a PhD scholar, is associated with Islamia University Bahawalpur.
Email: [email protected]
