Syed Qamar Afzal Rizvi
THE India-occupied Jammu and Kashmir is an internationally recognized disputed territory. No step by the government of India can change this. These changes are illegal and void as per the relevant UNSC resolutions, and do not prejudice the right to self-determination of the people of occupied Jammu and Kashmir,” Pakistan holds this an official stand on the Kashmir dispute. Recently the New York Times’ Editorial Board argued, ‘’Modi’s antics of 5 Aug made the most dangerous place in the world — Kashmir — even more dangerous. In doing so, he has made the Kashmir question more “international” than it has been in at least half a century’’.
Keeping the eight million Kashmiris under house arrest covering up by 800000 Indian troops, India can no longer take hold over the Kashmiri land. Any force majeure plan of military subjugation could turn the Vale into a future war ground. Should not Modi understand a constitutional fact? India is a voluntary federation of states, so how can New Delhi force people to stay with India if they don’t want it? The status quo ante orchestrated by the Modi government via Reorganization Order 2020 in the Vale cannot provide India with any locus standi over its legal claim over the Kashmir territory. For Narendra Modi, there is no viable scenario of Kashmir despite the fact the Modi Government has played its last card. But a sorry tale of affairs is waiting for the Indian Prime Minister since there is a problem in Kashmir, with anger, alienation, violence, human rights abuses, and it needs addressing these issues.
The drastic nature of India’s unilateral action reflects a de facto abandonment of its long-held position that all matters pertaining to Kashmir should be decided between Pakistan and India. This is a seismic foreign policy shift for India but also reflects a historical progression. India first took the Kashmir dispute to the United Nations in 1948, seeking a multilateral resolution and accepting the principle that the issue should be resolved on the basis of a plebiscite reflecting the will of Kashmiris. That referendum never happened. Since the Simla Agreement in 1972, Indian has been trumpeting that the Kashmir issue is a bilateral problem between India and Pakistan. Now, in 2019 — by revoking Articles 370 and 35-A — Modi has upped the ante again by declaring India’s intent to resolve the Kashmir dispute unilaterally. India’s new unilateralism has left the Simla Agreement dead; with the moribund scope of peace talks, the still-simmering conflict has no place to go except to become international—and reaching a critical point where the threat of a nuclear war in South Asia has become eminent.
By unilaterally changing the status of an internationally disputed territory — which, although occupied by India, is also claimed by Pakistan and under the sanction of multiple UN Security Council resolutions — all aspects of the international status quo on Kashmir have also been brought into question. The core gravity of the Kashmir issue lies in the Line of Control —dividing the borders between Pakistan and India and which rightly signifies the fact that Kashmir is a disputed territory. A Modi’s imposed new order in Kashmir, an order of subjugation, annexation and ethnic cleansing is resurrecting forces of insurrection and enmity in the mind of every Kashmiri man and woman, they are becoming the bastion against the forces of tyranny and forceful occupation. Building such a Nazist order in a conflict zone-waging a war of freedom will not be easy for India’s Modi. The old political leadership stands discredited and demoralised, yet it needs not be marginalised. They will anyway be compelled by the people to give way to a new order. Their expertise, resources and public support could be roped in to build a new Kashmir.
Amid growing dissent over India’s controversial religion-based citizenship law, emerging evidence indicates that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Hindu nationalist government embarked on a “reign of terror” against Muslims aimed at sending a stern warning that it would deal with any assertion of their rights with a heavy hand. The pattern of state violence unleashed by the ongoing demographic changes suggests the systematic targeting of Muslim-dominated neighbourhoods, which were vandalised and hundreds of innocent residents abused, detained and framed under stringent laws.
Andre Carson, a member of the US House of Representatives has recently said in a statement: ‘’The United States must be a partner with both Pakistan and India, providing a helping hand as these two regional powers mediate their disagreements. However, with these unilateral moves to cut off lines of communication, isolate residents, restrict the movement of Kashmir’s citizens and other alarming actions taken under the guise of security, I am increasingly aware that this regional crisis is escalating and could lead to greater conflict…By independently changing the sensitive arrangement governing Kashmir’s special status, the recent changes have failed to seek out the opinions of Kashmiris, managed to rapidly increase the tension between two nuclear powers, and put the Afghan peace process at risk.”
Modi is absolutely under a delusionary state of mind thinking that criticism in world capitals will peter out once he lifts restrictions in J&K, contingent on its ability to control any violent aftermath. In that scenario, Modi’s predicament is likely that of a man who has stepped on a landmine, and now hesitates to lift his boot for fear of triggering an explosion, but equally, knows he cannot stand in that position for an unlimited time. Make no mistake that the Modi Government ‘s launched reign of terror— aimed at silencing Muslims into submission on the path to a nation ruled by a far right-wing version of Hinduism in India and its evil extension into the Vale, could have irreversible consequences. Modi’s agenda to convert the LoC into the permanent India-Pakistan border can never be achieved. The appointment of Lt-Gen (Retd) Asim Bajwa as PM Advisor on Information is a right strategic move. Pakistan’s position is clear that it cannot leave the helpless Kashmiris at the helm of Modi’s agenda. New Delhi’s any misadventure along the LoC/Azad Kashmir will invite Pakistan’s defence forces to make an exemplary military response—making the war front— a future Stalingrad for Modi’s India.
—The writer, an independent ‘IR’ researcher-cum-analyst based in Pakistan, is member of European Consortium for Political Research Standing Group on IR, Critical Peace & Conflict Studies, also a member of Washington Foreign Law Society and European Society of International Law.
