PAKISTAN, an agrarian economy heavily reliant on both Rabi and Kharif crops, faces a looming crisis as climate change intensifies. The country’s major crops, including wheat, rice, maize and sugarcane, are at risk due to rising temperatures and unpredictable weather patterns. These crops are highly sensitive to water quantity and temperature fluctuations, making them vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. The agriculture sector is a cornerstone of Pakistan’s economy, contributing about 24% to the GDP and providing employment to 37.4% of the labour force. It is crucial for food security, rural development, and foreign exchange earnings. Major crops such as wheat, rice, sugarcane, and maize form the backbone of this sector, while the livestock sub-sector, including cattle, buffalo, sheep, and goats, also adds significantly to GDP and agricultural value. Despite facing challenges like climate change, water scarcity, and limited access to credit, the sector has displayed resilience and adaptability. The Ministry of National Food Security and Research (MNFSR) reports a promising 6.25% growth in the agricultural sector during the fiscal year 2023-24, signalling continued progress and importance for the country’s economy.
Research models utilizing crop-growth simulations indicate a troubling future for Pakistani agriculture. By 2030, it is estimated that rising temperatures will lead to a 6%–10% reduction in overall agricultural production. The study specifically predicts a 4% decrease in wheat yield and a substantial 10%–12% reduction in basmati rice yield across various agro-climatic systems, except for the northern regions of Pakistan. Several agronomic and socioeconomic factors contribute to the vulnerability of crops, including water accessibility, pesticide use, and labour availability due to seasonal variations. Climate-induced changes in rainfall patterns, especially during the crucial summer and Kharif seasons, are imperative for the production and yield of winter (Rabi) crops. International studies, such as the one conducted by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in Austria, paint a grim picture for Pakistan’s agricultural future. By 2080, a substantial decline in the yield of major crops, particularly wheat, is anticipated. These findings, available on the World Bank Knowledge Portal, underscore the urgency for substantial adaptive interventions. The potential rise in food insecurity and malnutrition emerges as a significant consequence of climate change. Unusual weather patterns, catastrophic events, and the destruction of crops and infrastructure can severely impact household earnings, food security, and livelihoods. Coastal regions and river deltas, already vulnerable due to rising sea levels, face additional distress. No doubt, addressing the challenges posed by climate change requires proactive and innovative approaches.
Additionally, the agriculture sector in Pakistan faces several major threats that could significantly impact its productivity and sustainability. Water scarcity is a pressing issue, with declining rainfall and over-exploitation of groundwater resources exacerbated by inefficient water management systems. Climate change poses a severe threat, bringing rising temperatures, unpredictable weather patterns, and extreme events that affect crop yields and livestock productivity, along with increased pest and disease outbreaks. Land degradation, caused by unsustainable farming practices and deforestation, further diminishes soil fertility. Farmers also grapple with limited access to quality seeds, fertilizers, and markets, hindering their productivity. Many still rely on outdated farming methods, which result in lower crop yields compared to global standards. Despite various initiatives, inadequate implementation of agricultural reforms and poor post-harvest management lead to significant losses and food wastage.
To safeguard Pakistan’s agricultural sector, it is crucial to introduce and promote climate-resilient farming techniques, such as precision agriculture, drought-resistant crop varieties, and sustainable water management practices. Implementing adaptation strategies at both governmental and community levels, including early warning systems, climate-smart infrastructure, and community-based resilience programs, is vital. Advocating for environmental justice ensures that vulnerable communities, especially those in coastal and river delta regions, receive equitable resources to cope with climate-induced challenges. Investment in research and development for sustainable agricultural practices, such as eco-friendly fertilizers, organic farming, and climate-resilient crop varieties, is essential. As climate change continues to pose a significant threat to agriculture in Pakistan, urgent and coordinated efforts are required to mitigate its impact. It is imperative for policymakers, farmers, and communities to work collaboratively to ensure a sustainable and resilient agricultural sector in the face of climate change. By addressing these challenges head-on, Pakistan can work towards a future where agriculture continues to thrive, providing food security and livelihoods for its population despite the growing threats posed by climate change.
—The writer is Director, Institute of Physics, Khwaja Fareed University of Engineering & Information Technology, Rahim Yar Khan.
