Ankara
As they meet this week, Putin and Erdogan may have to give up on their most ambitious plans and settle for something they can actually obtain.
The Kremlin has one overriding objective in Syria — to complete the full reestablishment of Assad’s control over the whole country so that Russia can at last extract all the economic and strategic benefits from its vassal state. Reconstruction would begin, and soon after the attempt to turn Syria into the critical link in a new network of pipelines connecting the Gulf to Europe. These are enticing plans, but their realization is still dependent on breaking the popular resistance in Idlib.
It must have come as a surprise to Russian strategists that — long after the West has lost interest in its fate —Turkey continues to stand by the besieged city. Why is that? As it turned out, Turkey has plans of its own.
For Ankara, Assad is not a solution.
All he promises is a perpetual state of war against the Syrian people, the consequences of which would, in great measure, be borne by Turkey. Refugees would continue to flow and instability would reign for the foreseeable future. While the European Union thinks of the Middle East as a distant planet, Turkey is a Middle Eastern country and cannot protect itself from the chaos engulfing the region.
Corresponding to this threat, there is an opportunity to push Syria in a different direction and bring it closer to a Turkish model of majority rule. Turkey also believes it can offer better perspectives for the battered Syrian economy — deep integration across the common border and a more vibrant private sector.
Two visions, one country. The clash has a fundamental nature and will not easily disappear.
The Kremlin believed Turkey would be forced to retreat, and made an extraordinarily dangerous gambit in trying to precipitate it. Last time they met, Putin looked across the table and saw a weakened Erdogan, opposed for the first time by more than half the country, isolated from Europe and America and struggling with a seriously exposed economy. In this context, a military setback might constitute a decisive blow.
Negotiations between Moscow and Ankara over Idlib had been difficult, fractious and inconsequential. Putin lost his patience and gave the green light for targeted attacks resulting in dozens of Turkish deaths. In the fog of war these might be deniable. They are also likely to have resulted in a higher number of casualties than were either intended or desirable.
Surprisingly, Turkey did not retreat. Historically, a blow against their beloved military has tended to rally Turks around the flag, and this time the Turkish army had a few new tricks up its sleeve.
Unbeknownst to many, under the leadership of the technical wizard Selçuk Bayraktar, Turkey had developed world class capabilities in armed drones. They were put to use to spectacular effect last week. Turkey claims it has killed more than two thousand Syrian troops in recent days, including three senior generals in drone strikes, and destroyed 103 tanks, six air defense systems and 72 Howitzers and rocket launchers
Suddenly — former U.S. President Barack Obama must have been shocked to find out — the Syrian air defense systems were exposed as the Potemkin contraption they always were.—Agencies
