Iqbal Khan
AMERICA’S foreign policy is like a river that changes course after every four or eight years with the arrival of a new President of the US (POTUS) to the White House. These days, the entire world is holding its breath to see which of President Donald Trump’s international commitments President-elect Joe Biden chooses to carry along. The US-Taliban Peace Deal of 29 February 2020 could stand scrapped in totality or see a major revision. Many Afghans believe Trump rushed with the peace process. They say that President Trump did not prioritise a responsible pullout of American troops, something that can result in pushing the country back into a civil war. Trump has also been accused of giving the Taliban more concessions during talks and sidelined the Afghan government.
And, one has also to see how Biden handles Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi who is quietly but aggressively following his strategy to be at least a disrupter in Afghan peace process. Modi wants to retain the capability of using Afghan soil as launching pad for India’s state sponsored terrorist proxies. In the run-up to the US elections, Biden had said he would withdraw US troops but was not averse to keeping some counterterrorism forces in Afghanistan. In an interview with CBS in July, Biden had said the US bears “zero responsibility’’ if the Taliban came back to power after the withdrawal of US troops. The responsibility I have is to protect America’s national interest and not put our women and men in harm’s way … that’s what I’d do as President,” Biden said.
However, Afghan analyst Maisam Wahidi is of the view that it is unlikely for Biden to reject the US-Taliban deal, as his priorities would be to solve more urgent domestic issues rather than getting into a disagreement with the Taliban. “Biden’s priorities are other domestic and global issues; including COVID-19 crisis in the US, Paris Agreement, dealing with China, Russia and Iran. So, I don’t think he will be the President to restart a war in a country that has proven to bring out no winners,” Wahidi said. Deep State strongly feels the necessity of around 9-10000 troops to remain stationed in Afghanistan for eternity, to meet strategic objectives beyond Afghanistan. Trump shall hand over the Afghan war to Biden at about same troop level at which he inherited. Troop basing in Afghanistan checkmates many rivals—China, Russia, Iran etc; alongside overarching intelligence gathering about Eurasian landmass. However, according to Aljazeera, “analysts say Biden will largely stay on the course set by the outgoing President but will hold the Taliban accountable for violence. They say the real difference will be in implementation, with some Afghans expressing hope Biden will give fewer concessions to the Taliban”. Afghanistan’s second Vice President, Sarwar Danish, has called upon the incoming Biden Administration to review the peace process and apply more pressure on the Taliban to reduce violence. Taliban are feeling the heat, and looking for umbrella. According to Arab News, on November 10, Taliban called on the incoming administration of US President-elect Joe Biden to stick to the February Agreement. “The Islamic Emirate would like to stress to the new American President-elect and future Administration that implementation of the agreement is most reasonable and effective tool for ending conflict between both our countries.” According to Andrew Watkins, senior analyst on Afghanistan at the International Crisis Group: “A Biden government is much more likely to listen to concerns of allies, including those in Kabul, and its own national security establishment, and adjust its policy of drawdown and disengagement to ensure continued stability as much as possible.
Taliban are likely to be the most influential group in any new political setup in Afghanistan, no matter who sponsors such a set; or whatever route it takes. This is a a reality with which neither Ashraf Ghani’s Afghan government nor Iran are happy to reconcile with; though both are trying to improve their relations with future rulers of Afghanistan. However, violence is increasing as all sides continue to violate anti-violence clauses of the February Peace Deal—with impunity. United States airstrikes have emerged as a new normal impacting on speed of Doha talks. At least 876 civilians were killed and 1,685 injured as attacks surged by nearly 50 percent in the three months to the end of September. United Nations has also raised questions over Al Qaeda with a senior UN official telling the BBC last month that the group were still “heavily embedded” with the Taliban. The US has, so far, kept up with the schedule of thinning out of troops to reach a zero level by May 2021. A report released in May by the UN said Al-Qaeda has between 400 to 600 operatives active in 12 Afghan provinces: Badakhshan, Ghazni, Helmand, Khost, Kunar, Kunduz, Logar, Nangarhar, Nimruz, Nuristan, Paktiya and Zabul.
Talking to the visiting Iranian Foreign Minister on 11 November, Prime Minister Imran Khan reaffirmed Pakistan’s support for Afghan-led and Afghan-owned peace process and hoped that this historic opportunity would be seized by all Afghan parties to secure a political settlement. Highlighting Pakistan’s efforts towards facilitating peace and stability in Afghanistan, the Prime Minister said there is no military solution to the Afghan conflict. Imran further said that peace in Afghanistan would be beneficial for the entire region as it would create new opportunities for trade and economic cooperation as well as regional connectivity.
Pakistan and Iran have agreed to make joint efforts for peace and stability in the region, including in Afghanistan. Pakistan and Iran can benefit from regional and other important forums for the promotion of cooperation in bilateral trade, investment, security and other areas of mutual interest. The matter was discussed in a meeting Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi held with his Iranian counterpart Mohammad Javad Zarif. During the meeting, FM Qureshi stressed that durable peace in Afghanistan was imperative for peace and stability in the region. “Afghan leadership has a unique opportunity in the form of intra-Afghan dialogue and they should not let this opportunity go,” he added. According to Seema Sengupta’s November 11 piece for Asia Times, intra-Afghan “peace process is at risk of collapse as influential groups seek a wider negotiation than US-backed bilateral track”.
The war in Afghanistan has cost about over one trillion. Over 157,000 people have been killed, including more than 43,000 civilians. The US has lost more than 2,400 of its troops in the war. Even as the peace talks are underway in Doha, violence has increased. No matter what the outcome is Americans have lost the will to pursue the Afghan war any more. Afghan war is over for the US; simmering may continue in the format of more of an Afghan conflict rather than a global war. New POTUS could mean a renegotiation or a watered down implementation of 29 February deal; keeping occupation troops in Afghanistan beyond agreed timeframe of May 2021, on any pretext, could unhinge Taliban from the deal.
—The writer is a freelance columnist based in Islamabad.
