ISLAMABAD – Normal to above normal rains, nearly normal temperatures are expected in Pakistan during this monsoon season, says the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD).
As per the synoptic situation, the neutral phase of climate indicators such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) will likely persist during the season with a tendency to shift towards the negative phase (La Niña) at the end of the season. Concurrently, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecasted to persist in a positive phase throughout the season.
Given the prevailing atmospheric conditions, the climatic forecast for Pakistan is as follows:
Seasonal Outlook (Rainfall): Normal to above normal rainfall is expected in most parts of the country, with maximum departure over upper Punjab and lower Sindh. Northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit Baltistan may get nearly normal rainfall whereas most parts of Balochistan may receive slightly above normal rainfall during the season.
Seasonal Temperature Outlook: Nationwide, the daytime maximum temperatures are expected to be nearly normal. However, northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan may experience warmer than normal maximum temperatures during the season. Nighttime temperatures are likely to exceed normal levels across most regions of the country, with marked deviation anticipated over northern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan and southwestern Balochistan.
Impacts and Advises: High temperatures in Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir may accelerate snowmelt, increasing river flow. Based on recent weather conditions, a considerable amount of soil moisture is currently available in the fields. However, rising temperatures may reduce moisture content before the onset of monsoon. Therefore, farmers are advised to irrigate according to the needs of their crops.
Day temperatures are likely to remain above normal all over the country during start of the forecast period but the expected rains towards the end of the season will normalize the high temperature. Strong winds, dust storms, and gusts are highly likely in the season.
The extreme hydro-meteorological events over catchment areas of the major rivers of the country are likely to generate riverine floods. Flash or urban flooding is anticipated in hill torrent areas of koh-e-Suleman and plains of major cities in Sindh, Punjab, AJK, and KP due to heavy rainfall events during the season.
