LAST year, the return of three-time former Premier and PML-N supremo Nawaz Sharif to Pakistan after four years of self-imposed exile in London raised intriguing questions about the state of political normalcy in the country. Following the Panama Papers scandal in 2018, which revealed details of corruption and offshore accounts involving prominent individuals from around the globe, Nawaz Sharif was found guilty of corruption and imprisoned in Pakistan. Months later, after his imprisonment sentence, local courts allowed him to leave the country for medical treatment abroad.
For years, the PML-N has vehemently denied any wrong doing and accused the former leadership of the country’s powerful circles of conspiring against Nawaz Sharif to end his political career. Nawaz Sharif’s return signified a potential shift toward a more inclusive political landscape, where a party that claimed its mandate was stolen in the 2018 general election would potentially have an equal opportunity to participate in parliamentary elections. His decision to return to Pakistan suggested a fair level of confidence among political forces regarding the elections’ inclusiveness and fairness.
Interim Premier Anwaarul Haq Kakar dismissed the impression that the PML-N supremo’s decision to return to Pakistan was part of any compromise with his government. Was Nawaz Sharif’s return part of any deal with the current leadership of the security establishment? It’s a big question, one he denies even today. For the country’s divisions to heal and for its political system to re-emerge from uncertainty, it is crucial that political normalcy returns first. If a deal paved the way for Nawaz Sharif to return to Pakistan, it benefited the country and democracy. During recent years, the country’s politics have seriously been polarized.
In addition to his past conviction, Nawaz Sharif’s return granted him the chance to address legal matters without fear of victimization, fostering confidence in the judicial process. The interim government’s commitment to fair elections ensured all parties, including the PTI, could participate without constraints. Despite factional divisions, the PTI’s aggressive stance against institutions and destabilizing actions weakened both the party and the democratic fabric of the country.
The head of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, Imran Khan, has been sentenced for using a secret diplomatic cipher for personal advantage, as well as in cases related to illegitimate marriage and Tosha Khana. It was encouraging to see that the party ran in elections and did not refuse to participate in the system. Now that the elections are over, federal and provincial governments are in formation mode. The democratic political system is likely to begin its efforts to combat serious economic, political and law and order challenges ahead.
Despite PTI’s provocations over the past few months, the Establishment reacted calmly and showed restraint, a sign that the state was returning to find ways and support processes to get the country and its economy working again. In any case, the development regarding Nawaz Sharif’s return was crucial for the democratic process, as it indicated willingness from key stakeholders to engage in positive competition and uphold democratic principles for the sake of the country and the nation. The current Establishment also seems unwilling to rekindle old battles with Nawaz Sharif and let him fight for country and the nation.
His return home symbolized the possibility of political normalcy returning to the country. Now PMLN is in power at the Centre and Punjab. By returning to Pakistan, Nawaz Sharif has expressed confidence in Pakistan’s democratic system and in the belief that he won’t be treated unfairly. Imran Khan is facing serious consequences of what he designed against the State of Pakistan on May 9. None is allowed to attack military installations and its dignified symbols of pride.
In the February 8, 2024 parliamentary elections, the PMLN failed to secure a simple majority in the country, and Nawaz Sharif could not become Prime Minister for the fourth time. Before the elections, Nawaz Sharif had been demanding a simple majority, but from whom? Only the masses can grant a simple majority to any leader. To regain unquestioned political popularity, will PMLN supremo Nawaz Sharif re-evaluate his political performance and strategies? After assuming power in Punjab and at the Centre, the PML-N leadership will need to regain its popularity through effective governance. Punjab, traditionally a stronghold of PMLN, is now facing challenges due to the emergence of PTI as an alternative political force.
In the Punjab Assembly, PTI is the largest party after PMLN, while at the Centre, PTI has secured more seats than PMLN. Failure to deliver politically could result in Punjab slipping into the hands of PTI, a loss that may be irreversible. Typically, the party winning the majority of seats in Punjab forms the government at the Centre. Only strong performance can save PMLN and Nawaz Sharif’s political legacy. For the first time, PTI has posed a challenge to Nawaz’s political dynasty in Punjab. Will Maryam Nawaz, Hamza Shehbaz and Shehbaz Sharif be able to safeguard Nawaz Sharif’s political dynasty? The countdown has begun.
—The writer is editor, book ambassador political analyst and author of several books based in Islamabad.
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