Mohammad Jamil
ACCORDING to a recent UN report, Pakistan’s population is expected to increase to 403 mil
lion by 2050. “The populations of both Pakistan and Nigeria more than doubled in size between 1990 and 2019, with Pakistan moving up in rank from the 8th to the 5th position and Nigeria from the 10th to the 7th position,” said the report. The overall global fertility rate (births per woman), which declined from 3.2 births per-woman in 1990 to 2.5 in 2019, is expected to fall further to 2.2 in 2050. In Pakistan, rate of increase in population is around 2.5 %, and birth rate per women (fertility rate) is 3.73 %; only comparable with African countries. World Economic Forum report for 2019 revealed that Pakistan ranked 110 among 141 countries on its Global Competitiveness Index (GCI) for 2019, which could be, among other factors, due to population explosion.
Anyhow, most countries have used population control, and Bangladesh has successfully implemented its birth control policies. Iran performed miracle in reducing its fertility rate from 6.53 to 1.96 in a span of 30 years. Bangladesh brought its fertility rate down from 6.92 to 2.1 since its independence, while Korea (1.21), China (1.65), Hong Kong (1.23) and Taiwan (1.1) made similar reductions. Pakistan is facing a very high fertility rate of 3.73; if not immediately addressed, this single factor could negate every other effort that Pakistan may make to break away from poverty, hunger, disease and illiteracy. There has been a lot of talk about population control, but despite enormous funding in the past could not produce positive results. In the late 1980s, Iran’s supreme leader, issued ‘fatwas’, making birth control widely available and acceptable to conservative Muslims. He argued that the economy could no longer support the bulging population.
On the other hand, Ulema in Pakistan are averse to population control. The Bangladeshi government has implemented programs with the objective of overall improvement in human development. Having that said, if socio-economic justice is not ensured, there would be turmoil and violence in the society. Anyhow, population growth must be checked in a planned way, otherwise the nature would limit it in its own way. Anyhow, population in Pakistan is increasing at the rate of around 2.5 per cent, which is double if compared with India and Bangladesh. Present government is taking measures to revive the economy and to provide education and health facilities to the people. However, in case the population growth rate is not checked it would retard economic development and reduce the quality of human resource in the country, and the government would not able to spend on social sector development.
Increase in population means less for each – less land for every farmer, less water for everybody and less education and health facilities for impoverished sections of society. According to the United Nations there would be four billion people living in countries defined as water-scarce or water-stressed by 2050, up from half a billion in 1995. In Pakistan, population growth and declining economic growth exert pressure on Pakistan’s economy. In these circumstances, it is difficult to allocate adequate to social sector. As population planning can reduce the pressure on the economy, all-out efforts should be made to achieve the population growth rate of 1% for eradicating extreme poverty, achieving universal primary education, reducing child mortality, improving maternal health, combating diseases and ensuring environmental stability. Geologists and scientists look at the causes of natural calamities and disasters on the basis of scientific knowledge and studies.
They opine that when man violates the ecological order, the nature limits the human numbers in its own way. On the other hand, religious scholars have different perception and consider natural calamities like earthquakes and floods as punishment for the sins of the people. They, nevertheless, cannot explain as to why pious people are also punished along with the sinful lot in the event of a natural calamity. However, the necessity of human numbers to conform to the environment and how this may be achieved cannot be overemphasized. Human population numbers had been subject to cyclical variations as a result of boom, gloom and doom. First half of the twentieth century had recorded great prosperity and improvement in living conditions, but at the same time saw savage wars that limited human numbers nature’s way. Anyhow, Pakistan faces many challenges vis-à-vis trade deficit, current account deficit and fiscal deficit.
However, population explosion seems to be the biggest challenge, as many problems emanate from this phenomenon. With the present rate of more than 2.5 % increase in population, Pakistan’s population would be 230 million by 2020 and more than 400 million by 2050. In Pakistan, social indicators with regard to human resource development vis-a-vis healthcare, education, employment, income distribution and skill formation lag behind other countries of the region. It is unfortunate that a resourceful country has been brought to the present pass by our inept leadership. There is no denying that with better management, fertility of soils can be maintained and improved, which could help match requirements of food for quite some time. With new methods and scientific approach, yield per acre has increased; but there is a limit, as ‘land’ is a critical factor, which cannot be increased once all cultivable land is brought under the plough.
—The writer is a senior journalist based in Lahore.
