Rizwan Ghani
THE statements of third of our population could fall below poverty level, one crore eight lac people could lose jobs and 30-35 lac small businesses could close due to Covid-19 fallout are a cover up of government’s poor fiscal and monetary policies resulting in contraction of economy and no substantial increase in exports with alleged losses of Rs6-8tn, high utility bills and fuel taxes to return IMF loans. It is mirror results of IMF Egypt program in which large segments of population suffered (Brooking’s Report, Jan. 30, 2018) while its IMF head later said in interview that I was enjoying Cario, running the IMF program there when I got the call to become Governor SBP and I accepted it (Twenty-second time lucky for Pak and IMF April 9, 2020 Asia Time). All this merits sacking of both teams with exemplary punishment for destroying country’s economy, jobs, overcharging and above all lack of compassion for poor people. President of South Korea was punished for corruption. The PM of Iceland was charged for negligence by country’s court for governments and banks’ role in contributing to debt and other crises which in our case is PM’s finance advisor and Governor State Bank who despite repeated concerns in media did not change policy. The Supreme Court is urged to take action in public interest. The government should bring the interest rate to 5% and exchange rate to Rs60 so that billions of dollars stashed in mattresses are forced to come to open market to avert taking foreign loans, create jobs and save economy.
In terms of tackling unemployment and poor economy, we can make use of some of new jobs which China’s Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security has added under emerging industries to improve our situation with the help of internet technology. Some of the jobs in the list are livestreaming, block chain (permanent, public verifiable record of transaction), online learning, 3D printing, information security tester, internet marketer, regulator for online sales, after sales services and consumer protection. How we can use these new jobs. A 2-4 week certified trained workforce with help of all concerned ministries can change the country’s daily business landscape by making it transparent, corruption free, taxable, implement price control and help use Covid-19 safe practices because hoarding, smuggling, adulteration, mafias, cartels, tax evasion and Covid SOPs have become a big challenge for the government. If we manage to link and regulate our markets with IT, it can be a successful model of good governance, anticorruption, expanding tax net and increasing government income.
IT ministry can facilitate the new technology based jobs by providing necessary infrastructure such as WIFI zones, cloud storage, cameras, high speed internet, standardized website/APP formats across the country for live streaming so that sellers and buyers can do business directly with help of blockchain and Pakistan Post can make the deliveries based on billing details. It will help implement uniform price and quality standards nationwide and block those who violate given policies. Government can bring an end to price manipulation permanently by starting with average house daily shopping list (including vegetable, dairy products, poultry, fish, meat, fruit, medicine etc.). The use of IT by the certified workforce will improve effectiveness of existing price control committees. Shifting of most business online will also help government collect more taxes and end corruption which is allegedly associated with the FBR.
This idea is more of a policy matter than requiring large amount of funding because most of the required IT infrastructure already exists. It only needs streamlining as per the requirements. The regulatory authorities should make these jobs mandatory for all businesses as part of quality control, ISO standards and consumer protection for online and offline regulation, sales and meeting export standards. It will help Pakistan’s transition to technology based business in post Covid-19 world in all sectors of the economy under government’s oversight with minimal cost. The government can approve this plan and allocate funds in the upcoming budget for small infrastructure setups across the country and individual loans (2-3 lac) for such certified people. It needs transparent policy, strict implementation and ruthless accountability. China has enforced death penalty for corruption. The real challenge for the government will be to eliminate entrenched mafias starting with daily kitchen basket items to other daily needs of average consumer including medicine, utilities or construction industry.
Due to increased use of internet technology in Covid-19 affected economies, the nature of jobs has changed. So the government needs to introduce new jobs for new domestic consumption based economic model. By training youth new skills, government can do good governance. The country will automatically move from politics of point scoring to delivering tangible results in the form of reducing cost of living and reducing unemployment and undo results of bad economic policies. Finally, it is hoped that the new professions introduced by China will help create jobs in Pakistan, improve economy, expand tax net, increase government income and exports, and restore exchange rate to Rs 60 to reduce cost of living and avert foreign debt. The government can train millions of people in record time with the help of short courses. But change will start with punishing corruption and adopting domestic consumption based economic policy starting with changing economic team and Governor SBP as Johnson did in the UK otherwise political climate may not allow IMF plan to deliver as it happened in case of Egypt despite $25bn additional input from Gulf States.
—The writer is senior political analyst based in Islamabad.
