Akbar Jan Marwat
THE latest military standoff between India and China (both nuclear powers) across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) is one of the most serious ones, since their showdown in Doklam in 2017. The gneisses of the current faceoff seems to be present in the unilateral declaration of Ladakh as union territory by India in October 2019. From that point on, India seems to have adopted more assertive infrastructure building activity in parts of Ladakh, which China also claims to be part of its territory. Thus an eyeball-to-eyeball standoff between the two nations started earlier this month. China carried out a massive troops deployment near the LAC. Blows and fist fights between soldiers of the two armies led to a tense military standoff between India and China in Ladakh’s Galwar Valley. The situation took an unprecedented turn, when China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) moved into the territory claimed by India especially in Galwar river valley and Pangang Tso Lake. According to reports, the PLA with 10,000 soldiers and heavy machinery on ground has captured a significant patch of Indian terrain thereby changing the territorial status quo on the ground.
Before going any further it would be in order of things to briefly distinguish between the Line of Actual Control (LAC) between India and China, and Line of Control (LoC) between Pakistan and India. The LAC serves as an international border between India and China. Although the LAC has got the backing of international law and International Court of Justice but it is basically represents the position of the two neighbors according to old treaties and conventions. In other words it is a bilaterally drawn line. On the other hand, the LoC dividing India and Pakistan is not an issue of merely bilateral nature. The LoC is the eventual legal outcome of Chapters 6 and 7 frameworks under the UN Charter. Another important distinguishing feature between the two boundaries is that: The LAC between India and China has largely been very peaceful due to the self-restraining agreement between the two nations. The LoC on the other hand is not covered by any-self-restring agreement; and thus fighting, shooting and shelling leading to military and civilian loss continues on this boundary line separating Pakistani and India-occupied Kashmir.
Compared to routine small scale intrusions in the area, the recent Chinese action is much more aggressive and it seems, executed according to a certain design. The relative silence from India, and its frantic attempts to down play the Chinese aggression betrays India’s confusion and inability to deal with the situation in an effective manner. This Indian position is in sharp contrast to the jingoism displayed by India vis-à-vis- Pakistan in its border disputes. This deafening silence on part of India could be a prelude to some kind of concessions, which India knows it might have to make to China. Since the 1962 Sino-Indian War in the Aksai Chin region, China and India have displayed extreme caution and restrain in dealing with their border issues. The recent development at the LAC is a major shift from previous patterns both in magnitude and intensity. According to some analysts and observers of the region, this move shows China’s attempt to be more aggressive in pursuing its territorial claims in all contested areas.
From Chinese point of view, however, its kinetic action seems to be a direct consequence of India’s construction of road network in the region, after its unilateral revocation of Article 310 in August 2019. India’s growing threats to Azad Kashmir and Gilgat-Baltistan, through which CEPC project passes, must also have increased Chinese’s suspicions of India. In spite of the serious nature of the crisis; full fledged conflict dose not seem likely, as China would not like to jeopardize its long term objectives of military domination in South China Sea and the regional connectivity through its flagship Belt and Road Initiative. Further, more, regardless of the outcome of the crises, future dynamics of this conflict have been brought to the fore. Events have successfully exposed India’s inability to engage China militarily, thereby eroding India’s purported position as the security provider in the region. Secondly, even if the current hostilities were managed, which they will be, recurrent tension in the region would become a new normal, as grievances of the two countries will surely outlive any temporary solution to the border crisis. Pakistan cannot afford to be indifferent to what is happening at LAC, especially when its own situation is very tense on the Line of Control (LoC) with India. Pakistan has to remain vigilant and ramp up its alert level at both LoC as well as the international border with India. India may escalate at LoC and even target Gilgit-Baltistan to seek Chinese de-escalation at the LAC. Pakistan has to show resolve and be prepared for any eventuality.
—The writer is a former Health Minister, KP, based in Islamabad.
