FOLLOWING the conclusion of the 24th Summit of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Astana, Kazakhstan, and the adoption of the Astana Declaration, the global community is now contemplating the future direction of this influential regional organization. The summit, set against a backdrop of commitments to establish a more inclusive, democratic, and diverse global system, highlighted both the ambitions and the fundamental obstacles encountered by the SCO. As it broadens its geographical and geopolitical influence, doubts persist regarding SCO’s efficacy and significance in the international arena.
The Astana Declaration, a noteworthy outcome of the summit, reiterated the SCO’s dedication to a fair global order, emphasizing principles such as the preservation of territorial boundaries, non-interference in domestic matters, and the peaceful resolution of conflicts. However, despite these high-minded principles, the organization’s ability to transform these aspirations into practical outcomes remains a persistent challenge. The SCO’s mandate prioritizes collaboration in domains such as counter-terrorism, economic advancement, and cultural interchange. Nonetheless, the organization’s initiatives in these areas have often fallen short of their goals, highlighting the gap between its stated objectives and actual achievements.
The expansion of the SCO, characterized by the inclusion of India, Pakistan, Iran, and now Belarus, underscores its aspiration to establish itself as a prominent actor in world politics. Originally founded in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan, the SCO has grown consistently and now encompasses over 60 percent of the Eurasian landmass and about 50 percent of the world’s population. This enlargement reflects the evolving interests of China and Russia, the two primary drivers of the SCO. Both states view the organization as a counterbalance to Western influence and a means to further their geopolitical objectives, thereby maintaining their closeness.
Russia’s engagement with the SCO has undergone a significant transformation. Initially lukewarm, Moscow’s stance shifted notably after 2014, following Western sanctions imposed in response to its annexation of Crimea and the subsequent Ukraine crisis. The Kremlin now regards the SCO as a vital platform for garnering support and countering claims of international isolation. This strategic pivot is evident in Russia’s “the more, the merrier” approach to membership, aimed at enhancing the organization’s international standing.
Nevertheless, China has consistently aimed to leverage the SCO to bolster economic ties, as well as to foster security and cultural collaboration. Despite facing initial resistance, such as opposition from Russia and other member states to the establishment of a free-trade area and an SCO development bank, Beijing has effectively utilized other platforms like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to advance its economic objectives in the region. The SCO holds substantial symbolic significance for China, showcasing its capacity to offer alternatives to U.S.-led organizations and positioning itself as a champion of developing countries’ interests.
The complex relationship between Pakistan and India further complicates the SCO’s efficacy. The regional competition between India and China, alongside Pakistan’s close alliance with China, poses significant challenges to the organization’s cohesiveness and its ability to achieve its goals. The strained dynamics between these key member states underscore the need for effective conflict resolution mechanisms within the SCO to ensure its functional integrity.
Many geopolitical experts are of the view that SCO’s expansion and the divergent priorities of its member states may dilute its capacity to exert significant regional influence. This diversification has bolstered its international profile but also complicated efforts to achieve concrete outcomes. The inclusion of Belarus, the first exclusively European country to join, exemplifies this trend, highlighting the organization’s geographical and geopolitical reach.
However, amidst current global geopolitical uncertainties, SCO member states are striving to prioritize stronger bonds and enhanced collaboration within the bloc. Central Asian republics (CARs) view economic cooperation, particularly in energy, as crucial. The recent Baku Energy Week in Azerbaijan underscored the importance of interconnectedness and strategic pipeline decisions. The advancement of the Middle Corridor, aimed at improving connectivity between Southeast Asia and China via Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, and Georgia, is a priority for CARs and the South Caucasus. China, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan, all SCO members, recently signed an agreement to construct a key railway corridor as part of the BRI, further enhancing regional connectivity.
The SCO is at a critical juncture, reflecting the aspirations of a multipolar world while grappling with internal disagreements and external perceptions of ineffectiveness. The future relevance of the SCO will depend on its ability to transition from a discussion forum to a proactive organization capable of shaping global norms and fostering genuine cooperation among its diverse members. The onus is now on the SCO to bridge these gaps and realize its potential as a cornerstone of global collaboration.
—The writer is PhD Scholar International Relations, based in Islamabad.
