MILLIONS of Europeans across 27 countries voted to elect the 720 Members of the European Parliament from 6th to 9th of June. The EU parliament is the legislative guard of Europe that works through and makes the EU Commission’s proposals palatable and implementable across 27 countries. This massive opinion marathon between the Eurosceptic, far-right nationalists and the proponents of “more Europe” was exercised in challenging contexts. The Europeans are well-aware of their squeezed competitiveness in the big power game between the United States and China, and therefore, they expressed themselves on big questions shaping the future administrative and policy outlook of the Union.
The major opinion flashpoints are: demographic, economic, and cultural consequences of migration and refugees, the question of comprehensive security and defence spending in the wake of the Russian aggression westwards, the Union’s relation with China, the fear of the Union becoming a super state dejecting national identities, dynamism, and undermining the authority of national governments, the debate on the 2019 Green Deal and financial impacts of nature restoration law, deforestation rules, pesticides, packaging waste, and EVs, the viability of asylum and sanction policies of the Union, the EU Enlargement debate, and the efficiency of its border management systems.
Most members of the European Parliament (MEPs) sit according to their political affiliation with different ideological groups. 23 MEPs from seven EU countries can constitute a group. In proportion to their seats, they get a share of EU funding and the right to speak first in parliamentary debates. Three-group majority of the center-right European People’s Party, center-left Socialists and Democrats and pro-Europe liberals, Renew Europe retained their majority. Together they bagged 400 seats, 55.5% of the total seats, almost 5% lower than 2019 EU elections.
However, as expected, from Europe’s far north, Sweden, to the Mediterranean south, Italy, the spectrum of far-right parties, the advocates of a radical re-envision of the European project in the rolling contexts of security, economy and culture, and proponents of a confederating union featuring more powerful nation states, achieved significant gains in public support. Giorgia Meloni’s IDF in Italy, Freedom Party in Austria, Conservatives followed by the far-right AfD in Germany, Marine Le Pen’s Rally Party in France, Fedz Party in Hungry, Netherlands’s Party for Freedom, increased their vote share.
The far-right Rassemblement National party obtained by far the most votes (31.5%), and combined far-right votes reached 40% in France. In Germany, the Eurosceptic party AfD secured a record 15.9 % votes, a gain of almost 5 percentage points compared to the 2019 EU election. The country’s eastern region voted almost exclusively for AfD. In Italy, the Brothers of Italy of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni did better than predicted, coming out on top with 28.76%.
Setting aside for a while the power politics of fascists like Nazis in the far-right Freedom Party of Austria and the ideological fanatics like Maximilian Krah, exploiting popular public fears and calling the EU “a bureaucratic monster”. However, the cascading surge in conservatism calls for a deeper understanding of the processes shaping the circumstantially different definition of reality for different people. An Ipsos exit poll found that 45% of French voters admitted that purchasing power had been a decisive issue in their vote and 43% opted for immigration.
The European Commission data shows that in 2022 only, 9.93 million non-EU citizens were employed in the EU labour market. At the end of 2021, less than 10% of all the world’s refugees and only a fraction of internally displaced persons were living in the EU. By the end of 2022, as a result of the war in Ukraine, the share of refugees living in the EU increased to more than 20%. Italy is struggling between European values and a wave of illegal migrants from Africa and West Asia through Mediterranean corridors. Georgia Maloni, the Italian Premier struck deals with Albania and Tunisia to create buffer zones at the borders of the Union. 385,445 irregular border crossings to the EU were registered in 2023, representing an 18% increase compared to 2022. The swing of the French, German, and Italian electorate towards the far-right is a natural response to the brunt of migrations and consequent financial and cultural insecurities.
Take another example of Eastern Europe. Poland joined the EU in 2004. After accession, Poland’s gross domestic product (GDP) per capita was 48% of the EU average (at purchasing power parity). Today it stands at 82%. Unemployment dropped from 20% to 2.9%. In the first 15 years, up to 2.5 million Poles emigrated, mainly to the UK, Germany and Ireland. Since 2018, the flow has reversed, and the country is recording a clear return of its population. Polish people, while enjoying the fruits of integration, vigorous trade, European funds, free enterprise, social inclusion, out rightly voted for Pro-European centrist Civic Coalition (KO).
The Coalition took 37.1% of the votes. In the case of another Eastern European country, Hungary, the situation is different. Reporter without Borders accused Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party (secured the highest 44.9% votes in EU polls) of taking measures against pluralism and freedom of press. Nevertheless, Hungary’s government denies these allegations. They have their reasons to justify their close ties with China and Russia.
In 2023 only, China has invested 16 billion Euros in different projects in the country. Russian nuclear power giant Rosatom is building two nuclear power plants in Hungary. Nuclear energy accounts for almost half of electricity generation in Hungary. Hungary was among the first countries globally to turn its 2050 emissions target into a legal commitment with the adoption of the Climate Protection Law in 2020. The Hungarians consider their perspective about Russia more pragmatic than anti-Europe as coined by the moderates sitting in Brussels and London.
Their argument is that if American, French and German sub-contractors can work together for Russian paymasters in Rosatom projects, or if the USA can be the largest Uranium buyer from Russia despite sanctions on Russia, or if Europe can be the biggest consumer of the Russian oil routed through India, or if the German BMW and Mercedes can do business with Chinese battery producers EVE and CATL respectively, then instead declaring Hungary’s approach as anti-Europe, the EU must introspect about the ingenuity and effectiveness of its own sanction policy. They oppose weapon supplies to Ukraine because many Ukrainians of Hungarian origin have already died in this war and more weapons means more violence, whereas, they view that this conflict can only be resolved through fair negotiations.
The EU election results call for more understandability in future before hitting the critical legislative trade- offs. As a matter of principle, Populism nourishes in an ecosystem of contradiction, denial and incompetence. Whereas, collectivism is an output of objective knowledge, adaptability and perspectival wisdom. These are important tools required to embrace diversity and pool it for the successful pursuit of larger common goals. This is what has been missing to some extent in the overall North Atlantic approach to deal with disagreements, within and without. Good news is that centralists and democrats get more five years. But the results have signaled that brushing off the inherent contradictions, bureaucratic delays, denying the role of the economic and cultural realities shaping political disagreements, would not be a sustainable approach.
Moreover, to cool down the boiling populism within, the new EU administration needs a rational foreign policy outside its borders. It is not possible to retain a calm Europe in a volatile world in the age of unprecedented global interdependence. A large chunk of migrants are from those countries where houses were bombed and infrastructures were destroyed by NATO during the last two decades. Another major chunk is coming from the former colonies of Europe in Africa. The voters demand a rectification course from the EU to ensure the sustainability of the project Europe, which is indeed a miracle of modern political science keeping in view the centuries of bloody wars and internal conflicts.
—The Author is a columnist and member of UNFCCC and ICAN. He taught Public Policy in the National Defence University of Pakistan.
