SHARED ethnic, cultural and geopolitical factors have profoundly shaped Pakistan’s historical ties with Afghanistan.
However, recent decades have witnessed a steady erosion of Pakistan’s strategic influence, creating space for other regional powers, particularly India, to expand their diplomatic presence significantly.
Understanding this historical trajectory, the reasons behind Pakistan’s marginalized role and formulating comprehensive strategies to regain influence are crucial.
Since its independence in 1947, Pakistan has exercised considerable influence over Afghan affairs, rooted in common ethnicities and strategic cooperation.
This influence peaked during the Soviet-Afghan war (1979-1989), positioning Pakistan as a critical ally of the United States, coordinating significant logistical and military support to Afghan Mujahideen groups.
Following the Soviet withdrawal, Pakistan’s influence deepened further by backing the Taliban during Afghanistan’s civil war in the 1990s, securing Islamabad’s strategic interests and promoting its policy of “strategic depth”, which sure was crucial for the national security.
Pakistan was applauded by not only Afghans but also the whole world for hosting the most significant number of Afghan immigrants for the longest time.
Pakistan’s influential position began to reduce significantly after the US-led invasion of Afghanistan post-9/11.
Islamabad’s historical ties to the Taliban and allegations of supporting insurgent elements severely strained relations with Western allies, especially the United States.
This breakdown in trust resulted in a decreased diplomatic role for Pakistan, intensified by successive Afghan governments under Presidents Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani, who openly criticized Pakistan for supporting militancy.
Simultaneously, international presence and reconstruction efforts diversified Afghanistan’s foreign relationships, further diluting Pakistan’s previously exclusive influence.
India’s active diplomatic engagement since then has notably shifted the strategic balance.
India strategically leveraged this diplomatic vacuum, establishing a robust presence through extensive investment in Afghanistan’s infrastructure, education, health sectors and security training programs.
Projects such as the Afghan Parliament building and Salma Dam underscored India’s commitment, garnering considerable goodwill among Afghans and significantly altering regional dynamics.
This strategic shift not only marginalized Pakistan’s influence but also raised Islamabad’s security concerns due to India’s support of anti-Pakistan elements from Afghan territory.
This includes India’s alleged support for Baloch separatists and its use of Afghan territory to launch attacks against Pakistan and the most recent one is the attack on the train and hostage taking in Balochistan.
This growing Indian influence has also influenced Washington’s regional strategy, significantly affecting US-Pakistan bilateral relations.
Recent diplomatic maneuvers, particularly visits by former US Special Envoy Zalmay Khalilzad, have further complicated Pakistan’s situation.
Khalilzad’s engagements with Taliban leadership indicate sustained US interests in stabilizing Afghanistan independently of Pakistani influence.
Such developments underscore Pakistan’s diminished diplomatic leverage, highlighting the urgency for Pakistan to redefine and recalibrate its Afghan policy clearly and strategically.
The direct engagement of US officials like Zalmay Khalilzad with Afghan leadership is not a new phenomenon.
The US has repeatedly circumvented Pakistan in its Afghanistan diplomacy, notably in March 2019 when Khalilzad directly negotiated the Doha Agreement with the Taliban.
This agreement, which outlined the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the Taliban’s commitment to prevent terrorist groups from operating in the country, effectively excluded Pakistan from pivotal negotiations.
Additionally, significant visits by high-ranking US officials, such as Secretary of State Antony Blinken in April 2021, further highlighted a clear preference for direct bilateral engagement with Afghan authorities.
These events, marked by decreased coordination with Islamabad, severely undermined Pakistan’s role, adversely affecting Pakistan-US and Pakistan-Afghanistan relations.
Pakistan’s diminishing Afghan influence correlated with deteriorating ties with the United States, primarily due to accusations concerning Pakistan’s role in sheltering Taliban elements.
India’s enhanced diplomatic presence in Afghanistan has compounded this dynamic, with the US increasingly viewing India as a stabilizing force and strategic partner.
Consequently, Pakistan experienced significant diplomatic isolation, affecting its international credibility and international negotiation power.
The erosion of Pakistan’s influence in Afghanistan poses substantial security, economic and diplomatic challenges.
Reduced strategic depth jeopardizes national security by exacerbating vulnerabilities along the Durand Line and escalating threats from cross-border insurgencies.
Economically, strained Afghan relations hinder regional trade and connectivity opportunities, negatively impacting Pakistan’s ambitions through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Moreover, growing Afghan alignment towards India complicates Pakistan’s security environment, particularly concerning insurgencies in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.
This evolving regional alignment also marginalizes Pakistan’s regional diplomatic influence, significantly affecting its broader geopolitical aspirations.
To recover its influence in Afghanistan, Pakistan must adopt a comprehensive, proactive diplomatic strategy grounded in transparency, sincerity and consistent engagement.
Emphasizing neutrality and actively supporting an inclusive Afghan-led peace process can rebuild credibility.
Increasing transparency regarding military and diplomatic operations and intelligence sharing will be crucial for regaining trust domestically and internationally.
Economically, Pakistan should prioritize substantial investment in Afghan infrastructure projects, humanitarian aid, uninterrupted trade and cross-border legal movement of the border area people, as they have relatives on either side.
This direct engagement can significantly improve Pakistan’s standing among Afghan citizens, fostering goodwill and restoring confidence.
Strategically, engaging regional powers such as China, Russia and Central Asian Republics to stabilize Afghanistan collectively can provide Pakistan with essential diplomatic leverage.
Adopting a constructive, facilitative role within multilateral frameworks and establishing our role as the regional peace builder and mediator could position Pakistan as a vital regional actor committed to regional stability and security and Afghanistan.
Pakistan can reposition itself effectively by transparently addressing security concerns, investing strategically in Afghan development and aligning closely with regional partners.
Recovering influence in Afghanistan is imperative for safeguarding national security and economic prosperity and maintaining robust diplomatic ties with global powers, particularly the United States.
—The writer is an International Law expert with a rich experience in negotiation, mediation and Alternate Dispute Resolution.
