Over the years, Pakistan has confronted the formidable task of satisfying its ever-expanding energy requirements amidst a complex interplay of socio-economic, environmental, and geopolitical dynamics. Despite the formidable hurdles, there exists a glimmer of hope—a pressing call for an energy transition. One of the key drivers of Pakistan’s energy transition is the growing recognition of the environmental and social impacts of traditional energy sources, such as coal and fossil fuels. The detrimental effects of these sources on public health, air quality, and climate change have underscored the urgency of transitioning to cleaner alternatives.
Additionally, the declining costs of renewable energy technologies, coupled with advancements in energy storage and grid integration, have made renewable energy increasingly competitive and economically viable. This presents a significant opportunity for Pakistan to capitalize on its abundant renewable energy resources and reduce its reliance on imported fossil fuels. Pakistan’s energy journey is intertwined with a rich tapestry of history and innovation. In 1991, The Hub Power Company Limited (HUBCO) emerged as a pioneer, heralding the era of Independent Power Producers (IPPs) in the nation. With a robust installed capacity of 3,581 MW, HUBCO remains a cornerstone of Pakistan’s energy infrastructure. Yet, despite such milestones, the spectre of inefficiency looms large. Traditionally, Pakistan’s energy strategy has revolved around capacity expansion, primarily driven by fossil fuels. Thermal power dominates the energy mix, accounting for a staggering 59%, followed by hydroelectricity at 25%. While these sources have served as stalwarts of the energy sector, their reliance poses grave environmental repercussions. The World Economic Forum’s Energy Transition Index (ETI) underscores this predicament, ranking Pakistan 107th out of 120 countries, with a meagre ETI score of 46.9. Pakistan’s energy landscape is marked by a myriad of challenges. The nation’s population continues to grow, driving up energy demands across residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. Simultaneously, environmental concerns, such as air and water pollution, and the depletion of natural resources, have come to the forefront. Moreover, geopolitical tensions and dependencies on external energy sources add another layer of complexity to the energy equation.
By harnessing the power of renewable resources such as solar, wind, and hydropower, Pakistan can diversify its energy mix, reduce its carbon footprint, and enhance energy security. Furthermore, investing in renewable energy infrastructure can stimulate economic growth, create job opportunities, and foster innovation and technological advancement. The winds of change are palpable along Pakistan’s southern coastal regions. A wind energy corridor, spanning 60km from Gharo to Keti Bandar, holds the promise of harnessing 50,000MW of wind energy. Currently, 36 private wind projects dot the landscape, showcasing the immense potential waiting to be unlocked.
Moreover, the government is diligently pursuing the development of hydropower, recognized as a clean energy source, especially in the remote regions of Northern Pakistan, as a strategic measure to alleviate the country’s energy challenges. The Indicative Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) outlines a pathway to enhance hydropower capacity by 13,000 MW, thereby bolstering energy security and fostering independence. Solar energy emerges as another promising avenue, basking in Pakistan’s abundant sunlight. Since its inception in 2013, solar power has steadily carved a niche in the energy mix, with seven operational projects supplying 530 MW to the national grid. This proliferation of solar energy epitomizes Pakistan’s commitment to embracing renewables as a cornerstone of its energy future.
However, the road to energy transition is fraught with challenges. The ageing power grid infrastructure, coupled with limited network capacity, poses a formidable bottleneck. The imperative to modernize and digitalize the grid infrastructure becomes paramount to seamlessly integrate renewables while ensuring grid stability.
Furthermore, financing remains a daunting hurdle in Pakistan’s quest for energy transition. The updated nationally determined contribution (NDC) underscores the staggering costs associated with transitioning to renewable energy. With an estimated investment requirement of $101 billion by 2030 and an additional $65 billion by 2040, the onus falls on international cooperation and support to realize Pakistan’s ambitious targets. However, realizing the full potential of the energy transition requires concerted efforts and collaboration across multiple stakeholders. It demands innovative policies, robust regulatory frameworks, and strategic investments in renewable energy infrastructure and technology. Moreover, public awareness and engagement are crucial in driving demand for renewable energy and fostering a culture of sustainability.
The Paris Agreement serves as a lodestar, guiding Pakistan’s transition towards a low-carbon future. The nation’s updated NDC underscores its commitment to shift to 60% renewable energy and embrace electric vehicles, while pledging to phase out imported coal. Such measures not only align with global climate goals but also foster economic resilience and social equity. Pakistan stands at a pivotal crossroads in its energy odyssey. The imperative to transition towards renewable energy beckons as a beacon of hope amidst the shadows of climate uncertainty. Through concerted efforts, visionary policies, and international cooperation, Pakistan can chart a course towards a sustainable, resilient, and prosperous energy future. As the sun sets on the horizon of possibilities, Pakistan stands poised to harness the winds of change and illuminate the path towards a brighter tomorrow.
—The writer is a political analyst, based in Islamabad.
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