AS per the Anadolu Agency website, Pakistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan on 17July 2023, finally signed a tripartite agreement, (after evaluating its feasibility report presented by Uzbekistan) to connect the three countries through a rail network. In a tweet, Afghanistan’s Railway Authority, run by the interim Taliban administration, also confirmed the development. This agreement is a continuation of the three countries – Uzbekistan, Pakistan and Afghanistan’s already signed roadmap strategic plan in February 2021, to construct a new 573km Trans-Afghan railway line that would connect Central Asia with ports on the Arabian Sea.
As planned, the rail route will pass through Termiz, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan’s Mazar-i-Sharif and Logar provinces and culminate in Pakistan via the Kharlachi border crossing in the Kurram tribal district near the Afghan border. It will offer a direct rail link between Pakistan and Tashkent, the capital of Uzbekistan. The line will support both passenger and freight services and is expected to improve the region’s economy and connectivity. According to the railway strategy for Central Asian Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC), about 25,000 kms of the main railway corridors outside the region will be connecting to the countries within it.
The project is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2027 and trains could carry goods up to 15 million tons a year by 2030.This railway link with Uzbekistan will help Pakistan to connect with Uzbekistan Ufa, Chelyabinsk, Novosibirsk, Saratov, Penza and Saint Petersburg (via Kazakhstan) and Kharkiv (via Kazakhstan and Russia. This link will also connect Pakistan with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Turkmenistan.
From Almaty, connecting trains are provided to Urumchi, in China. With only one change of trains in Moscow, passengers can travel overland from Central and Western Europe (Berlin, Cologne, Vienna, Prague, Budapest, Helsinki, etc.) to Tashkent and also to Pakistan after completion of the newly signed tripartite link. The trilateral project would include both high-speed passenger and cargo trains. The railway link is going to be financed by the World Bank with a loan of US$ 4.8 billion.
The above stated railway link, after its completion, will enhance Central and South Asia’s strategic importance and will provide economic activity to all countries of these regions. For Pakistan this rail link will act as a catalyst for its trade and foreign investment driven economic development. In fact, after completion of this rail network, South Asia and Central Asia will become a hub of economic activity, as most of the extra-regional major powers/countries will like to invest in this region and trade with it. In this context, because of the CPEC, Pakistan will attain central importance.
The rail link will also largely benefit the Central Asian republics economically as these states will get a shorter and cheaper trade route through Afghanistan and Pakistan, to the sea ports of Karachi and Gawader, to conduct trade with South Asia, ASEAN countries, the Arabian/Gulf countries, the African countries and the outer world and vice-versa. Thus, a huge trade volume passing through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), will also largely benefit Pakistan economically. Also, Pakistan’s exports to the CARs and Russia will flourish, thus impacting Pakistan’s economic development. This rail link agreement will also encourage the Gulf countries to invest in the development of the CPEC.
The CARs connectivity with the outer world through Pakistan will accrue many strategic and economic benefits to Pakistan. Since a huge volume of trade of many regional countries will be passing through Afghanistan and help improve its economy, it will also act as an incentive to the Afghan governments to ensure peace in Afghanistan by expelling dissident groups of the neighbouring countries, who are taking refuge there. This will also help Pakistan in ending the ongoing cross-border terrorism emanating from Afghanistan, as the TTP is taking refuge there.
Another likely strategic advantage to Pakistan would be that, India will also like to have trade with the CARs through Pakistan. For this purpose, India will have to keep peace and good relations with Pakistan, if not for itself, it will be influenced by the CARs to route their trade through Pakistan using this rail network, as it would be taking lesser time and lesser expenditure. This might influence India to develop good relations with Pakistan by resolving the Jammu and Kashmir dispute with it through a bilateral dialogue.
In view of the above discussed economic and strategic advantages of the rail link with the CARs, Pakistan should make its best efforts to work for fast tracking its development and an early completion of this rail link. Moreover, Pakistan should also fast track the development of the CPEC, including the special economic zones (SEZs) and upgrade its railway track and allied facilities from Peshawar to Karachi as already planned under the CPEC and also develop a railway track from Quetta to Gawader.
—The writer is also a former Research Fellow of IPRI and Senior Research Fellow of SVI Islamabad.
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