Huma Baqai
IRAN and Israel have been engaged in a shadow war for decades now. On land, sea, air, and tech fronts. Israel has covertly targeted military and nuclear facilities inside Iran and killed commanders and scientists since 2010. In response Iran over four decades has built a web of armed partners such as Hezbollah and the Houthis that serve to strengthen its influence in the Middle East. It has a formidable proxy war network which allows it an ambit of counter strategies.
It is not just Israel but the entire Middle East is vary of Iran’s web of armed partners and has mastered the art of proxy wars. Fabian Hinz an expert on Iran’s military at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in Berlin categorically says that “the level of support and types of system Iran has provided to its proxies is really unprecedented in terms of drones, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles.
They can be viewed as a part of Iran’s regular military capacity which is among the largest in the Middle East. It has also built a large fleet of speed boats and some small submarines that are capable of disrupting shipping traffic and global energy supplies that pass through the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz”. If the conflict escalates they can use this to disrupt global energy flows and supply chain networks.
Supposedly the network has also allowed Iran to protect itself and keep active war away from its land. Rightly stated by Dr. Afshon Ostovar, Associate Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School and an expert on Iran, Middle East, Armed Groups conflicts said that “it’s not that Iran’s adversaries fear Iran, it’s that they realize any war against Iran is a very serious war”.
The attack on Israel at the Iranian Consular Office in Damascus, which killed several senior Iranian military officials, took the conflict from proxy warfare to direct confrontation. On 13th April 2024, Iran launched an expected response to Israel, targeting the country with hundreds of drones and ballistic missiles.
This was the first direct attack on Israel since Iraq’s scud missile launches during 1991’s Gulf War. However, it must be factored in that the Iranian response was slow, deliberate, and forewarned, due strategic restraint was exercised, so as not to escalate the situation. Israel on the other hand was direct, reactive and provocative in their attack on the Iranian Consulate. It was uncalled for and had the malintentto drag the US into the war.
Israel’s most ardent supporter, patron and closet partner categorically said that it had not been involved nor aware of the plan to attack the Iranian Consulate. A report by NBC News on 14th April 2024, a day after Iranian retaliation, quoted three individuals close to Joe Biden saying that the President privately, expressed concern that Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to drag Washington into a broader conflict. However, who can deny Israel (read Benjamin Netanyahu) what it does, be it Gaza, be it Iran, because it believes US will support Israel no matter what.
The crux of the matter is that this deadly exchange between Israel and Iran have pushed the region and the world into dangerously unchartered waters especially at a time when many in US are convinced that they should get out of the Middle East and refocus attention on Europe and Asia. The American support for Israel’s acts in Gaza is against everything US and the West has always stood for. It’s the most blatant violation of all norms of international and humanitarian law.
Palestinian death toll has crossed 33,979 from 7th October 2023 to April 2024 including 13,800 children, 8,400 women. Approximately76,465 people have been injured and more than 8,000 are missing. The numbers of the dead and the destruction is becoming immeasurable. Israel’s military is killing Palestinians at an average rate of 250 people per day which exceeds the daily death toll of any other major conflict in the 21st century.
Gaza and Palestinian territories have endured unbelievable atrocities including direct attack on hospitals, schools, shelters, and starvation as a war strategy. Yet the resistance continues. The PR war is not the only war Israel is losing, it is leading towards a strategic failure. Gaza is a textbook case of use of excessive force does not deliver. Israel’s stated twin objectives of “dismantling” Hamas rule in the territory and rescuing all remaining Israeli hostages seized by the group remain unachieved, despite excessive unbridled use of force and asymmetry of response.
Many in Israel, including members of the war cabinet, have begun to question whether either or both of these aims can be achieved. Michael Milshtein, a former Israeli intelligence officer and expert on Palestinian affairs, said Israel faced a dilemma. “We’ve reached a T-junction: either you reach a full deal [with Hamas for the hostages] and withdraw, or you go for the full toppling of the Hamas regime and the conquest of all of Gaza,” he said. “You need to choose.”
Israel has won several battles but these successes are not translating onto strategic gains, is the general consensus of those who even today fully support Israel. The million dollar question upon which peace of the Middle East pivots is perhaps how much more rope the backers will grant to the perpetuators of oppression to carry on with this madness.
Ryan Evans, the founder of War on the Rocks has rightly analyzed Israel’s failing strategy in Gaza on a spectrum ranging from “muddled,” to a “strategically and morally unrecoverable” failure. On a lighter note Former/Future of the United States Mr. Donald Trump also endorsed this view in a recent radio interview.
