Three serious incidents took place in the last three days; 6-8 January 2025, having grave impact on the security of Pakistan. In the first incident, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) known as ‘Fitna al-Khawarij, issued a warning to the Government of Pakistan for carrying out widespread terrorist attacks on government installations and business-related services of Pakistani Military including FWO, NLC, Fauji Fertilizers etc. In the second incident, the terrorists of the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) have stepped up their terrorist attacks in various parts of Balochistan Province; challenging the writ of the state and the province. The third incident is in the diplomatic and political domain; having an overarching impact on the other two incidents, mentioned above.
The warning of terrorist attacks from TTP aims at creating a wider alarm among the masses and expanding their militancy and terrorism beyond Pak-Afghan border and military targets. This came after Pakistani Military targeted the hideouts of TTP terrorists, located in the Afghan territory, adjoining Pakistan, otherwise there has been no let-up in their terrorist attacks on the Pakistani military posts. These warnings have three connotations; a) the Pakistani attacks on their hideouts caused heavy losses to TTP and their abettors, thus there is a frustration among their ranks and file, b) TTP and its handlers are planning to create panic and chaos in the wider Pakistani society by creating scare and uncertainty c) since the terrorism of TTP is being effectively countered through counter-terrorism strategy of Pakistan, thus they are asking for some sort of indirect engagement/dialogue as a way out making use of pressure tactics. Besides, the stepping up of terrorist attacks of BLA and others in various parts of the Balochistan Province is aimed to pressurize Pakistan since the authors of the script are the same.
Immediately after this warning of TTP, Indian Foreign Secretary and Acting Foreign Minister of Afghan Taliban Government had a meeting in Dubai, UAE on January 8, 2025. These three incidents are inter-linked, meticulously planned, professionally executed and have a lot of meanings and implications for Pakistan and the region. Whereas, terrorist attacks of TTP and BLA are in the physical domain, a diplomatic and political coverage has been provided by their abettors and handlers; India and Interim Taliban Government of Afghanistan, sending a clear message to Pakistan both from Eastern and Western borders. A true illustration of Kautilya’s axiom and well-known adage of international relations; “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”. Indeed, Afghan ruling regimes have been undergoing this practice ever since Pakistan came into being.
Indo-Taliban Nexus is a true reflection of this axiom, despite there is a Hindu extremist regime (BJP-RSS) ruling India that has alienated, tortured and exploited the Muslims in the entire Hindu India and there is an extremist Muslim Islamic Regime in Afghanistan in the form of Taliban, who claims to be the very strict followers of Islamic teachings. It is to be mentioned that, on the request of Donald Trump, the then US President (and now President-elect), Pakistan brought the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table in 2020 for an agreement between Taliban and the US. Nevertheless, upon taking over Kabul, the Interim Taliban Government parted its ways from Pakistan and maintained covert relations with Indian BJP Government. From 2022 onwards, officials of the Taliban Government have been secretary meeting with Indian officials including elements of its spying network; Research and Analysis Wing (RAW).
The factual position is that, RAW and NDS never parted ways and continued their strategy of promoting terrorism in Pakistan through terrorist groups, mainly the TTP. Rather than stopping this, the Interim Afghan Taliban Government gave a consent to RAW and NDS for terrorism against Pakistan by allowing the usage of its soil. As per research report Wilson Centre, authored by Mirwais Balkhi, “BJP-Taliban Ties and Their Implications” dated December 12, 2023, there have been frequent exchanges of delegations between India and Afghan Taliban Regime. The report says that, on the eve of the visit of this Indian diplomatic delegation, “Taliban Interior Minister Anas Haqqani and Defense Minister Mullah Yaqub, in a conversation with Indian media, asked New Delhi to resume the activities of its embassy in Kabul.”
The report further says that the Defence Minister of Taliban, Mullah Yaqub even went beyond that and said, “Taliban is interested in entering into military and strategic cooperation with India and that to achieve that goal, it would first be necessary to reopen the Indian embassy in Kabul”. Thereafter, India reopened its embassy in Kabul and later in October 2022, an agreement was signed between India and Taliban Government for the increase in the trade volume between New Delhi and Kabul; through air corridor and now through Chabahar Port of Iran.
In the meeting of January 8, 2025, between Indian Foreign Secretary and Afghan Acting Foreign Minister, it was decided to revive the historic friendship between New Delhi and Kabul through strong people-to-people contacts, promoting trade and commerce and Indian readiness to respond to the urgent developmental needs of the Afghan people. The Afghan Minister asked India to expand its involvement in Afghanistan in the development projects including defence and training of its security personnel. Both agreed to process their trade through Chabahar port of Iran, otherwise administered by India.
The Indo-Afghan Taliban Government nexus has serious implications for the security of Pakistan. Indeed, all terrorist groups including TTP and BLA are being financed and trained by India and abetted by Afghan Taliban Government from its soil. Pakistan needs to seriously reconsider its strategy and reach out to international forums with evidence to counter this nexus besides a continuing policy of countering the terrorism.
— The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University, Islamabad.
