The completion of the Wakhan Corridor (WC) up to the Chinese border has become a hot topic among the academia, research scholars and strategists in the country. Even the policy-makers and main stakeholders are worried and terming it a strategic blow to CPEC and so-called strategic depth. Conversely, the Chinese policy makers have not yet resumed this corridor because of serious security threats, especially potential backlash from the ISIS-K in Xinging region.
The ongoing Mexican wave of deadly terrorism in the country has alarmed spillover geopolitical and geostrategic repercussions which has worsened prospects of seeking more and more inflows of FDIs, exploring potential of joint ventures and last but not the least, stability and sustainability of the national economy. Even strategic importance, utility and scope of the SIFC is at stake.
Unfortunately, reactivation of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), Majeed Group, BLA and their trans-regional alliance with ISIS-K is a wake-up call for the government and the military junta. China has serious security concerns that Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region may face a resurgence of deadly terrorism infiltrating through the WC. Most recently, many reports of the Economist, UN and other international organizations confirm that terror groups are using Afghanistan as a platform.
Critical analysis discloses that the Chinese policy-makers are worried about transnational linkages between Afghans and Xinjiang Uyghurs. The possible support to separatists of Xinjiang from Islamic groups active in Afghanistan is a major concern for China. The TTP and The East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) would be a potential risk for the Chinese and Xinjiang if proper security measures and anti-terrorism mechanisms could not be installed.
The WC holds potential for both positive and negative impacts on Pakistan. Ideally, it could extend the CPEC from Pakistan to Tajikistan through Afghanistan, linking Central Asian States with Karachi and Gwadar ports. However, it may also undermine Pakistan’s CPEC ambitions by diminishing its strategic importance in the current Afghanistan transit trade mechanism. The WC could establish a significant highway linkage between Tajikistan and Pakistan via Azad Kashmir, enhancing trade and economic activity. It might facilitate the exchange of minerals, textiles, agricultural products and manufactured goods, with Central Asian States exporting resources like oil, gas and minerals, and importing textiles, machinery and electronics. Similarly, China, Nepal and India are exploring cooperation through the Trans-Himalayan Corridor to benefit from mountain resources such as water, energy and tourism. Like the Trans-Himalayan initiative, the WC presents an opportunity for cooperation, necessitating a national debate on its prospects and challenges.
Geographically, the WC is unique as it is situated at the crossroads of four countries: China, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Tajikistan. It is the shortest trade route for Pakistan to reach Central Asia and for China to enter Afghanistan. The famous Broghal Pass (Chitral) is serving as the most important gateway for Pakistan to the WC. Wakhan Chitral River Route starting from Brogohail Pass to Gwadar Port along Chitral River can also link Jalalabad with Chitral.
The proposed route will also serve as an alternate to Karakoram Highway for China and Pakistan as a safeguard against any aggression by India as the proposed route will be 135 km away from India as compared to Karakorum Highway and will be out of India- claimed Gilgit-Baltistan.
The construction of this road will also benefit other countries such as Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Iran and Pakistan as it creates a significant opportunity for increasing trade and economic activity in the region. This route can further facilitate the trade of various commercial goods between the respective countries.
The Wakhan Corridor is poised to gain significant geostrategic importance for Afghanistan, China and Pakistan due to shifting regional alignments. The opening of the Wakhjir Pass from China is expected to boost regional trade and connections. However, the WC is also exploited by terrorist groups such as Harakat Al-Mujahideen, Jund-ul-Allah, TTP and the Islamic Movement of Turkestan (IMT), raising concerns that an open and porous Tajik border could soon pose serious security issues for Central Asian countries and China. The Corridor is a conduit for human trafficking, drug flow and terrorism, threatening China’s efforts to curb terrorism. Additionally, the WC is crucial for biodiversity conservation, with potential development areas including the Big Pamir, Teggermansu and Wakhjir Valley, underscoring its global significance for biodiversity.
According to many prominent security experts, opening up the WC will support Pakistan’s security and strategic interests by facilitating increased military maneuvering and countermeasures against Indian intrusions in Gilgit-Baltistan from the Ladakh region. The areas across the Qala Panja, Mintaka and Wakhjir Passes interlink Gilgit-Baltistan, Tajikistan and Afghanistan, establishing a critical connection.
In summary, the increasing diplomatic momentum between Pakistan and Tajikistan should be further geared up by starting construction of their own joint Wakhan Corridor connecting Afghanistan and China. Afghanistan, China, Pakistan and Tajikistan Quadrilateral Cooperation and Coordination Mechanism (QCCM) to counter terrorism should also be strengthened as opening up of the WC.
Integrated efforts should be initiated to stop the movement of terrorists between Pakistan and Afghanistan through effective border management. A joint collaborative strategy to counter militant groups in and around the WC is the need of hour.
Interestingly, the WC is considered as an alternative to Pakistani ports, particularly since the countries to the north of Afghanistan prioritize economics and trade over politics which must be countered through strategic projection and facilitation of the Gwadar Sea port.
A hybrid trans-regional security umbrella under the SCO RATS may also be implemented to secure vested interests of all the regional countries. Holding of regular Pakistan-Afghanistan-China trilateral strategic dialogue may also be a right way to move forward.
An enhanced military cooperation among Pakistan and Central Asian countries would be a big peaceful push to maintain peace, stability and harmony in the region. Formation of an effective anti-human & drugs force may be an innovative idea to implement to further extend the CPEC and BRI in Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in the days to come. A holistic and comprehensive strategy focusing on the possible positives that may emerge, and for minimizing the potentially negative impact it may have on the country’s trade from the WC.
