FOR the past six decades, the United States has played a dominant role in global politics and diplomacy, asserting its power across the world. However, the balance of power is shifting rapidly and China’s growing economic and military capabilities have brought a global superpower like the US to a crossroads. There is no doubt that China, now a major economic force due to its extensive investments across Asia, Africa and Latin America as well as its diplomatic approach, is emerging as a significant challenge for the United States. According to the US National Security Strategy 2022, China is now considered America’s primary rival. While the United States still maintains an economic, military and technological advantage over China, Beijing’s expanding influence in international markets, its military presence in the South China Sea and its technological advancements have raised serious concerns in Washington. Fearful of China’s growing global influence, the United States is mobilizing its allies to counter China’s actions, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region. Alliances such as AUKUS and the QUAD have been formed as part of the US’s “Strategy of Disruption” against China.
Yet, China has skillfully navigated the international political and economic landscape, using existing global structures to its advantage, often leaving the US behind in its diplomatic efforts. In response, the United States is attempting to curb China’s rise diplomatically under its Indo-Pacific Strategy. Washington has accused Beijing of illegal trade practices, human rights violations, intellectual property theft and expansionist ambitions in the region. The US has also obstructed China’s efforts to join institutions like the World Trade Organization and the United Nations and has worked to limit China’s influence by strengthening alliances with ASEAN nations, including the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore, Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam.
Notably, the US has lifted sanctions on Myanmar to gain access to its vast resources, while continuing to ignore China’s peaceful diplomatic efforts, such as its role in brokering reconciliations between Iran and Saudi Arabia. Moreover, China has proposed solutions to the Ukraine war and the Palestinian conflict, but the United States has largely dismissed these initiatives.
One of the key areas of tension is technology. The US views China’s rapid technological development as a threat to its national security. Washington has launched a campaign against Chinese tech firms, particularly in the fields of artificial intelligence, cybersecurity and 5G networks. Sanctions have been imposed on several high-profile Chinese companies to protect American technological dominance, particularly in the semiconductor and microchip sectors. Taiwan and South Korea currently lead global microchip production, while US share has dropped from 37% to just 10%. To limit China’s technological advancements, the US has banned the export of high-tech components, such as NAND flash memory with more than 128 layers and logic circuits below 14-16nm.
A closer look at China’s economic growth since the COVID-19 pandemic reveals that the US strategy to slow China’s economic rise has had some effect. China’s GDP growth rate dropped from 6% in 2019 to just 2.2% in 2020, rebounded to 8.4% in 2021, but fell again to 3% in 2022 before rising to 5.2% in 2023. This fluctuation highlights the economic divide between China’s eastern and western regions.
Meanwhile, the United States has been increasing its military presence in regions where China has made significant inroads, particularly in the Asia-Pacific, the Middle East and Africa. In 2017, China established its first overseas military base in Djibouti, followed by a naval base in Equatorial Guinea. In response, the United States has stepped up military cooperation with African nations near Equatorial Guinea. China has become Africa’s largest economic partner, with trade between China and African countries reaching $254 billion in 2021. In contrast, the US has sought to block Chinese investment in African telecommunications, infrastructure and agro-processing projects.
In the Indo-Pacific, the United States has bolstered security ties with nations such as Australia, Japan, Indonesia, South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines through regular military exercises. Under the Indo-Pacific Strategy 2020, the US announced plans to deploy 60% of its warships to the region to counter China’s growing influence. Additionally, the US provided Taiwan with advanced military equipment in 2021 to help defend against Chinese assertiveness in the South China Sea. The US has also held security talks with Japan, India and Australia as part of the QUAD alliance, aimed at countering China’s global ambitions. The US has also planned to build four new military bases in the northern Philippines to serve as a staging ground for American forces near Taiwan and the South China Sea, further highlighting the US-China rivalry in the region.
Donald Trump imposed sanctions on China in 2018 and 2019, under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, triggering a trade war that reduced China’s exports to the US from 22% to 18%, with China retaliating by cutting imports from the US to the same level. The US also imposed restrictions on imports from Xinjiang, citing human rights concerns related to the Uyghur issue and has focused on disrupting Chinese supply chains to obstruct China’s shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
In South Asia, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has become a target of US criticism, with claims that China is trapping countries like Pakistan in debt to increase its dominance. India, opposing CPEC, fears that its success will enhance China’s regional influence and bolster Pakistan’s economic standing, undermining India’s role and the US’s position globally. Meanwhile, the recent political and economic crises in Sri Lanka and Pakistan, as well as instability in Iran and Afghanistan, can be viewed in the broader context of the U.S. “Strategy of Disruption.” The question arises: what will be the outcome of the U.S. “Strategy of Disruption” against China? Today, the U.S. faces a much more powerful China than before. If the U.S. starts a hot or cold war, history may take an unexpected turn.
—The writer is Chairman, Tehrik Jawanan Pakistan.
