UNPRECEDENTEDLY, Iran and Pakistan have conducted strikes on each other which shocked regional security pundits. The ongoing escalation forced Pakistan’s caretaker Prime Minister Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar to cut short his visit to the World Economic Forum in Davos and return home. It is feared that these strikes will endanger diplomatic relations between the two neighbours as Pakistan has long regarded Iran with suspicion over militant attacks and espionage activities.
On the part of China, it urges calm and offers mediation. China has stepped forward, offering to mediate the situation and facilitate a peaceful resolution. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning, while addressing a regular press conference, highlighted its country’s strong commitment to play a constructive role in de-escalating the situation if both sides so wish. She desired and hoped that the two sides can exercise calm and restraint and avoid an escalation of tension. Even Turkey requested both countries to restrain from any further military misadventure.
It seems that spillover repercussions of ongoing Israel-Hamas war have also raised the threat of violence spreading in the greater Middle East. The Iranian attacks in Iraq and Syria primarily on the US military bases/Israeli spy centres do not justify its attack within the territories of Pakistan. The real motives are still unknown however, circumstantial evidences strongly indicates that it was intentional and well-planned. The most recent visit and presence of Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in Tehran during the attacks, leaving of Iranian Ambassador to Pakistan on day before the attacks and last but not the least, close liaison of Iranian and Indian RAW all raised suspicions. Moreover, conspiracy theories even talk about the mad race of counter checking the air defence system was one of the key reasons of this untimely and dangerous move, badly violated concepts of international law, sovereignty and territorial integrity.
After the Iranian attacks, Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry issued a strongly-worded condemnation, expressing strong disapproval of the incidents that led to the tragic loss of two innocent children and the injury of three girls in parts of Balochistan. It is feared that it is going to damage the bilateral relations in terms of common security, secret information sharing mechanism, joint fight against terrorism and combating against drugs and human trafficking in the shorter terms. The Iranian so-called high claims of targeting two bases belonging to Jaish-al-Adl, allegedly in Pakistan does not have any concrete evidence and justification which should be a wake-up call for our policy makers and security junta. After that Pakistan’s government does not have any option but to response.
Many dormant agents and sleeper cells have been arrested from different parts of the country and Pakistan’s Air Force initiated “Operation Marg Bar Sarmachar” and struck terrorist hideouts in Iran’s Sistan-Balochistan province. It used its killer drones, rockets and other modern war weaponry to hit the hideouts of the BLA and BLF. According to ISPR, terrorists mainly Dosta Alias chairman, Bajar, Sahil, Asghar and Wazir were targeted. It was an intelligence-based operation which ultimately eliminated several terrorists. Even, Colonel Hossein Ali senior IRGC commander in Sistan-Balochistan has been killed by unknown men.
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Iran’s attacks in Balochistan violate international law, diplomatic norms, and regional peace. The repercussions include spillover effects on socio-economic, geopolitical, and geostrategic aspects for both sides and the region. The volatile 900-kilometer border between Pakistan’s Balochistan province and Iran’s Sistan-Balochistan province heightens security threats. The strikes have sparked anger in Pakistan, denouncing them as an egregious violation of international law and the spirit of bilateral relations, emphasizing the need for both sides to exercise restraint.
Iran’s state-aligned Tasnim news agency said it had been targeting strongholds of the Sunni militant group Jaish al-Adl, known in Iran as Jaish al-Dhulm, or Army of Justice. The separatist militant group operates on both sides of the Iran-Pakistan border and has previously claimed responsibility for attacks against Iranian targets. Its ultimate goal is independence for Iran’s Sistan-Balochistan province. Pakistan struck back two days later with what it called a “series of highly coordinated and specifically targeted precision military strikes” on several alleged separatist hideouts in Sistan-Balochistan.
Pakistan said it had for years complained that separatist fighters had safe havens and sanctuaries” in Iran and was forced to take matters into its own hands with recent strikes. Many regional security experts are of the opinion that the larger regional conflict may have vitalized Iran to be more proactive in pursuing targets beyond its borders. The day before the strikes in Pakistan, Iran launched ballistic missiles at Iraq and Syria claiming to be targeting a spy base for Israeli forces and anti-Iran terror groups. The various hostilities reflect Iran striving to cement its role as a leader in the region and further strengthen its so-called axis of resistance in the region.
Jaish al-Adl is among several separatist groups operating in Iran, originally part of the larger Jundallah, a Sunni militant group that fractured after its leader’s execution by Iran in 2010. Jundallah had global support to use against Iran. Jaish al-Adl frequently targets Iranian security personnel, government officials and Shia civilians. Iran’s strikes on Pakistan sparked a diplomatic spat, leading to Pakistan recalling its ambassador and suspending high-level visits. In response to Pakistan’s strikes, Iran demanded an immediate explanation.
US State Department spokesperson Matt Miller highlighted Iranian violations of the sovereign borders of three of its neighbours in just the past couple of days, terming it a danger to regional peace and stability.”
Pakistan’s subsequent strike on Iranian soil shows it has decided to respond with more than just diplomatic repercussions because national security is at stake which needs proportional response. Interestingly, both sides issued statements after their respective strikes that hinted at a desire not to see things escalate. Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry called Iran a brotherly country and emphasized the need to find joint solutions. Even Iranian Foreign Minister, called Pakistan a friendly country earlier this week and said their strikes were proportionate and only aimed at militants. The role of China is paramount to de-escalate the situation by mediating between two sides. The euphoria of proxies and power game should not siege regional peace and stability.
—The writer is Executive Director, Centre for South Asia & International Studies, Islamabad, regional expert China, BRI & CPEC & senior analyst, world affairs, Pakistan Observer.
Email: [email protected]
views expressed are writer’s own.
