FORMER President Trump escaped murderous attempt. It has serious global and US domestic implications. US administration down graded it an individual terrorist activity. In follow up investigations, Director Secret Service resigned. Will Mr Trump accept this logic; answer is NO. US election certainly is going to be in favour of Trump. His selection of JD Vance also a smart political move. A young, vibrant and anti establishment. Yet there are six months, and any thing can trigger a conflict in Europe. Joe Bidden, stepping down from Presidential Race is also a set back to US global foreign policy. Will Kamala Harris fill the gap, has to be seen in upcoming election.
Earlier in the NATO Summit, European leaders convened in Washington as a follow-up to the Brussels meeting, underscoring the global significance of these discussions. The Brussels summit communiqué revealed deep divisions among European leaders regarding support for Ukraine. While the European Union has pledged continued aid, the lack of a unanimous long-term commitment reflects internal dissent and suggests a partial victory for Putin. Consequently, the suffering in Ukraine is likely to persist, exacerbated by three years of devastating conflict. The war has left Ukraine’s infrastructure in ruins, particularly in the east, with nearly 30% of its territory under Russian control following a controversial referendum.
The Ukrainian military faces severe shortages of arms, ammunition and manpower, compounding the crisis. The economic and social impacts are catastrophic, with billions needed for reconstruction. Furthermore, concerns about nuclear safety have emerged, as Russia has warned that any escalation could lead to nuclear fallout affecting Europe. These developments highlight the dire humanitarian situation and the complex geopolitical ramifications of the ongoing conflict, emphasizing the urgent need for cohesive international support and effective intervention to address the crisis.
Reportedly almost 300000 troops have been assembled and stationed, ready to be moved into Ukraine. Heavy armour and latest aircraft are promised to Ukraine along with the training of the pilots. Arrangements are in hand to tackle the new refugee problems in case the war expands. The economic and strategic impact in such a scenario is horrific. The world is already reeling in proxy wars and destructions as well as consequent inflammatory trends. The impact of the Israeli war on Gaza already has disrupted logistics world over…NATO/RUSSIA escalation in Ukraine is certainly going to impact the international trade and logistic extremely adversely. Russia is concerned and the response of Russian President Mr Putin, such a move will be tantamount to a direct war between the NATO and Russia. After the Second World War it is the major threat to Europe and the world at large. The continued support of Ukraine in spite of the Ukrainian military’s condition and the moral of the Ukraine people and the army indicate piqued strategy of US and weakness of NATO. President Biden having stepped down and democrats, in the year of election, cannot afford a perception that they have lost in Ukraine.
Putin’s response has been very aggressive in the last two weeks; air strikes have intensified within Ukraine, hitting civilian areas and causing considerable damage to infrastructure. The gathering of NATO troops raises questions. Are they recruiting mercenaries from other countries? Reports indicate that recruits from many Asian countries are already fighting in Ukraine. As far as Zelenskyy is concerned, his choices are limited. He is reluctant to step down and cannot abandon the war. Analysts mostly presume that he will push Europe into a very dangerous situation if the conflict escalates between NATO and Russia. So far, there have been two important developments in Europe: in England, the defeat of conservatives, and in France, the surprising triumph of the centre-left. Although they did not achieve a clear majority and must form a coalition government, the message is clear: Europeans are fed up with NATO’s subservience to the US. With Trump’s nomination, his chances of election victory appear bright. Kamala Harris might be a weak candidate. Yet, predicting American domestic politics is challenging. Trump is determined to end the Ukraine war and change policies in the Middle East and South Asia. However, it remains uncertain whether the deep state and powers to be (Committee of 300 Report) will create a black swan event.
NATO’s overtures will put not only Russia in direct conflict with Europe but also it will involve China and other Central Asian States in tied defence and security packages. Historically small actions act as catalyst and major blunders happened as in Vietnam. In case of conflict in Europe , South Asia and Far East will get involved. As it happened in the beginning of the Second World War , after the crumbling of Poland and Belgium , other countries jumped into fray. Already high-level US delegation under former speaker and Foreign affairs Committee Chairman has met Dalai Lama last week to present a Greater Tibet Plan . The delegation also called on Mr Modi , Indian PM, thus signalling the world INDIA is on board. It has dangerous connotations for India China relations. Years back such a move was already rejected by China. Presently Greater Tibet regions already stand merged with surrounding Chinese provinces.
In South Asia, India may like to take advantage of this geopolitical mess, occurring in a follow up of the conflict in Europe to attack Pakistan Kashmir on the behest US planners to drag in the Chinese. Will that happen is questionable but Modi can indulge in adventure in the geo strategic mess created by escalation of war in Ukraine and Europe and present Pakistan’s economic situation present a lure. Simultaneous a threat from Eastern border . Pakistan must keep a watch and put own its house in order.
—The writer is a senior researcher and analyst. He regularly contributes to the national press.
