Shehryar Hamesh Khan
THE curfew imposed in Indian Occupied Kashmir since August 5, 2019 as a consequence of the revocation of Article 370 and 35A is yet to be lifted. And as our federal government declared long ago that they do not wish to talk directly to Indian leadership on the issue, a military action could become a reality, especially when taking the issue to the UN hasn’t made the fascist BJP Leadership budge. However, war is not feasible, neither is it sensible to both nations.
In the Indo-Pak scenario, it is foolish to undertake any military action without a thorough understanding of the interactive phenomenon of escalation and escalation dynamics. As a fact, the theory based escalation models can only be partially applied in the subcontinent. Besides being nuclear states, the bordering areas of the two countries have undergone massive demographic changes rendering any attempt of limiting collateral damage in population centers, impossible. This is compounded by a hyperactive media on both sides, capable of raising the political temperature almost instantaneously and manipulating the mindsets of the millions of illiterate youth on both sides of the border. Moreover, it is also almost impossible for one side to predict the extent of escalation without overwhelming escalation dominance on one side and the lack of response on the other. Interestingly, except for a Directors General Military Operations hotline, the two countries have no mutual escalation control mechanisms nor any formal dialogue forum, making an action-reaction cycle spiraling out of control, a real possibility and a grave danger.
Furthermore, with a compulsion to match the military might of the Indians, Pakistan invested in tactical nuclear warheads. However, this can lead to full blown nuclear response from the Indian side who may consider the use of tactical nukes as an initiation of nuclear war. The threat of the first strike is always from the Indian side. From a one-off strike, hot pursuit, proactive to the ‘cold or luke-warm start’ strategy, whatever the mechanism of attack, the response is on the table. Pakistan will not blink.
From an economic point of view, Pakistan will take a huge hit, with its economy barely holding on and with little or no foreign exchange or tapped oil reserves to back its military to carry out a prolonged war. However, the Indian economy will suffer a great deal too. A fortnight of conflict would cost around INR2,50,000 crores and raise India’s fiscal deficit phenomenally. The economic hit severity would cause uncertainty for foreign investors, depreciating value of the Indian rupee.
In case of a prolonged conflict, the impact would be felt for years. The replenishment of war reserves and catering for almost 68% obsolescence of the Indian army’s hardware would account for a rise in the defense budget for almost a decade. This would also put an end to any downsizing and reorganizing plan of the Indian army. With this unfolding scenario, the Indians would be denied a notion of victory and with the economy shattered, no political mileage would be gained.
How will it all end? The Indians do not have the ability to dominate and control, as Pakistan has the ability to create significant effects. Moreover, as our prime minister highlighted, a unilateral termination strategy will not work. The issue is India-occupied Kashmir and its resolution lies within India. A war will not work, as we have seen three times in the past. There’s no escape from this reality.
