THE current terrorism surge in the country clearly indicates the beginning of a new end game in the region which has complex and complicated socio-economic, geopolitical and geostrategic spillover ramifications. Reactivation of Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Majeed Group is a wake-up call for all of us. The most recent attack on Gwadar Complex and assassination of defence forces personnel, including officers, in Waziristan shows a vast canvas of this menace trying to entangle our security, peace and prosperity.
On its part, the Chinese Government and its private companies have been assisting the interim government of Taliban to achieve the desired goals of regional peace and stability in the country. Unfortunately, poor law and order situation, resurface of numerous local, regional as well as global terrorist groups on the soil of Afghanistan, harsh political realities, ethnic divide, absence of structured system of governance, weak diplomacy, poor administration and economic development, it is feared that it would not be an easy sailing for China and its private companies to secure its bilateral relations and invest in Afghanistan. Simply, it would be high risk business affairs.
Regional proxies continue to pose a significant challenge to Chinese interests in Afghanistan, despite assurances from the Taliban. Doubts persist due to reports of the Taliban’s close ties with the CIA and Pentagon, raising questions about their trustworthiness. Furthermore, the Taliban’s support for the TTP exacerbates tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan. As Afghanistan serves as a crucial Middle Corridor between South Asia and Central Asia, the Wakhan Corridor emerges as a potential flashpoint. This narrow strip of land in north-eastern Afghanistan, bordering China, Tajikistan and Pakistan, spans 350 kilometres in length and varies in width. Its strategic importance cannot be overstated.
According to Taliban representatives, the construction of WC is to further get connected with the regional countries which will be shortest and safest path or connecting hub but will not be easy to pursue for so many geographical, physical, socio-economic, geopolitical and geostrategic overlapping vested interests of the regional countries as well as the world power brokers mainly the US which considers the Chinese investment, projects and plans of greater connectivity with Afghanistan a strategic threat and potential risk for security, relations with Central Asia and even out-reach in South Asia.
Interestingly, the construction of the Pamir Highway has encouraged the Taliban interim government to seek more and more investment, economic assistance, trade and political favour from the Chinese side. The Pamir Highway has been connected with the Chinese border. Critical analysis reveals that the construction of Pamir Highway has serious socio-economic, geopolitical and geostrategic spillover repercussions for regional countries and the US due to which even Michael McCaul, Chairman of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, openly criticized China’s increasing influence and economic presence in Afghanistan.
There is increasing fear among the policy makers and military junta of the US that China might gain control of Bagram airport shortly which would be a strategic defeat to its long-term vested interests in the region. Moreover, according to many reports and sources, even Chinese interest and investment in the exploration of mining & metals, mainly Lithium has rocked the US officials which consider it as potential risk to their future energy interests. According to local press and sources of Afghanistan, the construction of a 50 kilometre stretch of the Silk Road, extending from Wakhan district to the Chinese border has been initiated and executed which is indeed a wake-up. Stakes are very high in terms of the WC construction mainly security, infiltration of terrorists, human and drugs trafficking, smuggling and waves/incidents of terrorism will be further strengthened especially in Xinjiang region.
There are increasing concerns that Northwest China’s Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region may face a resurgence of deadly terrorism infiltrating through the WC. Reliable security experts share that terror groups are using Afghanistan as a platform. China fears a potential spillover of terror and separatist activities through the WC. Critical analysis divulges that the Chinese policy makers are worried about transnational linkages between Afghans and Xinjiang Uyghurs. The possible support to separatists of Xinjiang from Islamic groups active in Afghanistan is a major concern for China. The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and The East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) would be a potential risk for the Chinese and Xinjiang if proper security measures and anti-terrorism mechanism could not be installed.
In summary, Zojila-tunnel, the biggest in Asia under construction in Indian Ladakh will not only bolster India’s security but also serve as a symbol of its presence in the challenging terrain of the Himalayas. It would be another potential security threat to China. Moreover, increasing “Missile Geopolitics” among US, Japan and Korea in the Indo-Pacific region is eroding regional peace and stability. Tensions, tussles and dangerous tendencies in the South China Sea are getting momentum due to which serious conflict is going to happen between Beijing and Manila. The global power broker is busy using its wild cards for disturbing China in the region.
There is serious concern among the prominent regional economists and security experts about the opening of the WC. It would have a negative impact on Pakistan and its macro-economy. Since China and Pakistan have trustworthy relations, therefore, a trilateral meeting of strategic dialogue would be the right option to avoid any opposition from Pakistan. The local economies of KP and Balochistan would be further marginalized with the opening of the WC which should be resolved through trilateral meetings among Pakistan, China and Afghanistan. Even armed forces should also be on the same page. Momentum of terrorism against Pakistan may be fatal for CPEC and Chinese investments which must be dealt with iron hands. The best solution would be construction of the WC from Pakistan’s side and to be connected with China under the flagship project of the BRI and CPEC.
—The writer is Executive Director, Centre for South Asia & International Studies, Islamabad, regional expert China, BRI & CPEC & senior analyst, world affairs, Pakistan Observer.
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