Rashid A Mughal
THE old saying “there is no smoke without fire” holds good for all times to come and has relevance to every event in our daily life, be it politics, economy, social life and history. When some news is broken on social media, electronic and print media, we first check the veracity of news, see if it is from a credible source and double check or counter check from other sources before believing it. Ultimately news turn out to be 100% correct, 50% correct and or less. But in these times of “media activism”, news are seldom 100% incorrect but may be partially correct.
The fact remains that there is always some truth behind sensational or normal news. So where there is smoke, there is fire. Some countries, mostly authoritarian ones, hide the truth from their people and suppress the facts with an iron hand. In democratic countries where people have freedom of speech and expression, people come to know the real facts in no time. In the latest happenings in USA after George Floyd’s “murder” the facts were quickly exposed by a strong and vibrant media due to which the “Culprits” were identified in no time and the public backlash which followed was remarkable and unprecedented. The incident also again brought into limelight the racial bias in America and also exposed the tilted and one-sided criminal justice system of a country, foundations of which rest on pillars of liberty, equality and fraternity and justice.
Unfortunately, the system in US is such that common man does not either have accessibility to the correct version of events or they are not bothered or interested in knowing the truth. Particularly, when it comes to politics .the masses are either ignorant of the facts or are not interested in going to the bottom of truth. This painful malady is due to the fact that common man is only interested in the affairs of his/her town or district or may be at the most county level where he has to vote for electing a Mayor, Sherriff or Judge. Beyond that, their participation is negligible. This is partly due to lack of education and will to be involved in the affairs of country. Surprising fact is that nearly 55%-60% of the students who complete their high schooling, do not go to college and only half of those remaining, reach University level. One can easily guess the level of thinking and awareness of a high school graduate and a university graduate.
This partly explains the low turn-out of the voters at the Congress/Senate and Presidential election and desire to join political/economical affairs of the country. Another important factor in American politics is “Rural” and “Urban” divide. The figures revealed after the Trump-Hillary election in 2016 were surprising for many. In many ways, Trump-Hillary election conforms to America’s underlying basic economic, demographic and political divides. In fact, the 2016 election reinforces the nation’s divides between richer, more highly educated, more diverse, and more urban Blue States and less advantaged, working class, less diverse, Red States. That’s the centre point of analysis of the key economic, political and cultural factors that are associated with support for Trump versus Clinton across America. This analysis helps illuminate not just the patterns of the current outlier of an election, but on the fundamental divides of the American electorate and society writ large.
Class continued to be a basic dividing line in last election. Clinton states were richer (being positively correlated with both average incomes at 57, and hourly wages, at 67, while Trump states were poorer (being negatively correlated with both income at -.60 and with hourly wages, at -.68). Trump also drew more support in states with greater concentrations of poverty, measured as the share of families living below the poverty line (the correlation there is .39). Clinton support has no significant correlation to the share of people living in poverty. The Democratic victories in the House of Representatives in the mid-term elections have obvious policy consequences. But it could have lasting implications for the health of America’s democracy too. As for the comparisons between Obama backed candidates and Trump backed candidates, the figures are an indication of their popularity. Obama endorsed 74 candidates in House and Senate races around the country ahead of mid-term elections and 39 of them, or 52.7 per cent, won their respective races. In contrast, only 21 of the 75 candidates endorsed by Trump claimed victory, according to an analysis by The Brookings Institution. Trump registered a success rate of only 28 per cent, lower than his second in command, Vice President Mike Pence, the former Indiana Governor who endorsed 61 candidates only 27 won, just over 44 per cent.
While class is a key axis of division in American politics, the culture wars continue to matter as well. Religion remains a key dividing line in American politics. The level of religiosity in a state—measured via Gallup surveys of the share of the state population who say they are very religious, is positively correlated with Trump support. Abortion remains another key fault-line issue in American politics, as we heard in the final presidential debate. Trump support at the state level is substantially negatively correlated with the number of abortion. On the flip side, states with higher teen birth rates supported Trump. Guns are another dividing line. Trump support is higher in states with more gun deaths per capita. Gay rights are yet another key fault-line issue in American politics. The results of an analysis for future race are surprising. We heard much about the racial divide in the last Presidential election, and especially how Trump drew support from white voters. And we did find that states where whites make up a larger share of the population, they supported Trump.
Here it appears the key factor is not the overall share of the white population but their degree of racial isolation. Immigration has been one of the biggest issues in the Republican primaries and the general election campaign. Given his anti-immigrant position, it’s not surprising that Trump support is negatively correlated with the share of foreign-born people in a state. Trump’s position on immigration has alienated a large numbers of Hispanic voters. African-Americans have long been a key member of the Democratic coalition. The recent events have further strengthened and consolidated “Democrats” position as far African-American voters are concerned. It will be very interesting to watch the November Presidential election but there is no denying the fact that “Race relations” will be a key factor in the final decision.
— The writer is former DG (Emigration) and consultant ILO, IOM.
