BENGA LUR U The U.S. economic recession underway, caused by the coronavirus pandemic, will be worse than previously thought, with more economists polled by Reuters over the past week expecting a “Ushaped” recovery rather than any other option. The novel coronavirus has infected nearly 2.5 million people around the world, killed nearly 170,000 and led to lockdowns in many countries, shutting schools, industries and businesses The United States has the highest infection numbers and deaths among individual nations. So far, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy of zero interest rates and unlimited asset purchases – which will likely expand its balance sheet to $10 trillion this year, according to the poll – as well as $2.3 trillion of federal government spending, have only softened the blow. In the latest Reuters poll taken April 15-20, before the price of U.S. crude oil fell below zero per barrel on Monday, just under half of 45 respondents based in the U.S. and Europe w ho answered an additional question said the U.S. economic recovery would be “U” shaped, as represented on a chart tracking economic expansion or deceleration in percentage terms. Ten said it would be “V” shaped, seven said it would resemble a tick mark, and five said it would be “W” shaped. But economists, who have spent the last several weeks slashing forecasts by greater and greater amounts, were more doubtful than ever about the country’s growth outlook, now that the longest expansion on record has abruptly ended. “We’ve never gone through anything like this before. So, anyone who claims to have real expertise in these sort of issues, I think is not being honest. —Reuters
