Unholy plot ?
IS the US plotting to make a Yugoslavia out of Afghanistan to avenge its ignominious defeat at the hands of a rag-tag, crudely armed group of Afghans who seem to have been driven by what appears to be a high pitched religious zeal? The kind of narrative that a politically highly influential section in the US is articulating currently seems to be forcing Washington to pursue such a path.
The argument favouring the unholy plot: By ignoring Afghanistan and leaving it to its own devices after the defeat of the Soviet troops at the hands of US armed Afghan Mujahideen had led to the 9/11.So, let us not ignore it but engage the country to render it totally incapable of causing another 9/11.
Indeed, al Qaeda is already celebrating the departure of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan as a victory for global radicalism.
In a report released in early June 2021, the United Nations also noted that the relationship between the Taliban and al Qaeda remained strong and that the Taliban had done little to sever links that had been “cemented through second-generational ties.”
This was despite explicit language in the eventual agreement stating that the Taliban would instruct their members not to cooperate with groups that posed a threat to the United States and its allies.
Other indicators as well do not seem reassuring to the US. After Kabul’s fall, the Taliban appointed a hardline non-inclusive interim government headed by Mullah Mohammad Hassan Akhund, who served as foreign minister and then deputy prime minister during Taliban rule from 1996 to 2001.
Sirajuddin Haqqani, the new interior minister, has a $5 million FBI bounty on his head for his role in terrorist attacks that killed U.S. citizens.
And Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar’s relegation to deputy prime minister also appears to be a sign that hardline Taliban factions currently have the upper hand.
And on the issues of specific human rights, women’s right and counterterrorism conditions too the assurances of Kabul’s new rulers have remained just that; so far no practical steps have been taken in this regard and the way things are shaping up, none are expected in the foreseeable future.
It would not be out of place at this point to recall how Yugoslavia disappeared from the face of the world map.
As a result of a series of political upheavals and inter-ethnic conflicts during the early 1990s the socialists (former communists) lost power to ethnic separatist parties in the first multi-party elections held across the country.
Nationalist rhetoric on all sides became increasingly heated. Between June 1991 and April 1992, four constituent republics declared independence.
After a string of inter-ethnic incidents, the Yugoslav Wars ensued, first in Croatia and then, most severely, in multi-ethnic Bosnia and Herzegovina.
The wars left economic and political damage in the region that is still felt there decades later.
That is exactly what the Biden administration is suspected of trying to do in Afghanistan by closely coordinating with allies and partners and setting clear conditions for engagement and provoking an inter-ethnic conflict in the war-torn country which the US hopes would lead to a civil war fragmenting Afghanistan into armed fortresses of Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks and finally degenerating into a wider war between the Taliban and those among the population who are bitterly opposed to the kind of ‘rule of law’ that the former is trying to establish in Afghanistan.
As a first step in hurtling the country towards such a point foreign aid which had covered nearly 70 percent of the Afghan government’s budget in the recent past would be continued to be denied and starve the Taliban rulers of the essential resources needed to ward off the onslaught of the opposition when the civil war actually breaks out.
Secondly, the Treasury Department would strictly maintain sanctions on individual Taliban leaders involved in terrorism. Thirdly, the US would refrain from unfreezing $9 billion in U.S.-held Afghan assets, come what may.
Further, Washington seems to have decided to work closely with ‘like-minded’ UN Security Council members, including France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, to resist Chinese and Russian pressure to lift sanctions against the Taliban without conditions.
Washington is also said to be reevaluating its reliance on Pakistan as its key partner on issues related to Afghanistan and instead focusing its efforts now on coordination with other regional democracies, especially India.
With the policy of eschewing the idea of counterterrorism cooperation with New Delhi ‘out of deference to Pakistan in tatters’, the United States has now decided that it has far more to gain by coordinating with ‘democratic states that fight terrorism than by fruitlessly trying to work with regimes that rely on terrorist proxies to achieve regional objectives’.
Washington views India role at the UN Security Council, where it is currently serving a two-year term as a non-permanent member as highly welcome.
As UNSC president, India introduced a strong resolution on Afghanistan in August that had called for combating terrorism, upholding human rights, and encouraging an inclusive political settlement with full, equal, and meaningful participation by women.
As it devises a new counterterrorism strategy that does not rely on an active troop presence, Washington also plans to invest in partnerships with Central Asian states that border Afghanistan, such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
But the way the US wants to engage with Taliban’s Afghanistan seems to be too risky as the designed civil war which it wants to provoke in that country with the hope of destroying it completely and finally making it disappear from world map as the final solution, could spell disaster for the region as China and Russia would certainly resist the US plot with all their diplomatic, political, economic and military strength which would mean the Cold war in the making turning quickly into a hot one.
The real problem facing Taliban currently is the lack of financial wherewithal needed to keep Afghanistan afloat. Cash-strapped Iran and Russia are out of the question, which leaves only wealthy powers like China, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
The Qataris have appeared hesitant to commit, as have the Chinese, despite their initial positive attitude. That leaves Saudi Arabia. But would Riyadh go against the US? Not very likely.
— The writer is veteran journalist and a former editor based in Islamabad.
