THE firing of the high-tech missiles by the Ukrainian armed forces against the Russian critical sites, the deployment of North Korean 11,000 troops on behalf of Russia in the Kursk region and retaliatory fire of the Russian Oreshnik—hypersonic medium-range missile contained multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs altogether added an escalatory dimension in the Ukraine war. Another alarming development is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s modification of the Kremlin’s nuclear doctrine on November 19, 2024, which has lowered the nuclear threshold. So, these escalatory developments are gliding Russia and NATO toward nuclear Armageddon.
Since the beginning of the war in February 2022, the Russian leadership has signaled the use of nuclear weapons to deter the direct involvement of NATO forces in support of Ukraine. To make its threat credible, President Putin ordered the country’s nuclear forces to move to the heightened alert status of a “special regime of combat duty.” Besides, it deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus. He announced that ‘nuclear weapons would be used not just under attack but when faced with a critical threat.’ According to Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov, the recent changes to Russia’s nuclear doctrine meant “the use of Western non-nuclear rockets by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Russia can prompt a nuclear response.” Though the Russian ruling elite has frequently signaled the employment of nuclear weapons, the Kremlin will exercise maximum restraint in conducting nuclear strikes to impede an outbreak of a nuclear war.
The United States has provided colossal political, diplomatic, financial, and military hardware assistance to Kyiv from the beginning of the war. It was reported that the total aid given by the Biden Administration to Ukraine accounts for USD 106 billion, and out of this, nearly USD 70 billion was exclusively for weapons and military support. Besides, the United Kingdom and European states provided advanced military hardware to Ukraine. The former supplied armour-piercing shells containing depleted Uranium. Recently, Ukrainian armed forces received advanced air defense systems, F-16 fighter jets, and advanced missile systems from its backers in the war to strengthen its striking punch.
The war escalated to a dangerous level with the US and UK permission for Ukraine to use long-range missiles to attack Russian territory last week. Ms Maria Zakharova, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson, said: “Kiev’s use of long-range missiles to attack our territory will mean the direct participation of the United States and its satellites in hostilities against Russia.”On November 19, 2024, Ukraine launched six American-made MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile Systems—colloquially known as the ATACMS on an ammunition depot in the Bryansk region of Russia. Russia claimed it had struck down five of ATACMS. Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov opined that Ukraine’s use of long-range ATACMS missiles would be a “new phase of the Western war.”On November 20, 2024, Ukraine fired 10 United Kingdom Storm Shadow, a 250 km range missile, on the command post in Marino—Russia, assuming the presence of North Korean army generals and officers at the post. Ukrainians claimed that missile strikes killed a high-ranking Korean general and several North Korean soldiers.
The supply and permit to operate long-range missiles necessitated Kremlin retaliation with disastrous deeper strikes into Kyiv to relegate Ukrainian attacks into Russia and Donbas. Kyiv claimed that Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile toward south-eastern Ukraine on November 21, 2024. The claim of Kyiv seems incorrect because the Kremlin does not need to strike against Ukraine with ICBM. It could comfortably destroy targets in Ukraine with short or medium-range missiles. Moreover, a U.S. official also refuted the Ukrainian claim by saying that Russia launched “an experimental medium-range ballistic missile against Ukraine” near Dnipro. Russia fired a new Oreshnikon the Ukrainian city of Dniproin response to Ukraine’s use of U.S. ballistic missiles and U.K cruise missiles to hit Russia. Following the missile strike, President Putin warned NATO,” We consider ourselves entitled to use our weapons against military objects of those countries that allow using their own weapons against our objects. In the event of an escalation of aggressive actions, we will respond decisively and in a mirror manner.”
The Russians were also disturbed by establishing a new U.S. ballistic missile defence (BMD) base in Redzikowo, Poland, near the Baltic coast on November 13, 2024. The base is part of a broader NATO missile shield dubbed “Aegis Ashore.” The BMD can intercept short, intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Therefore, if the ongoing war unfolded out of Ukraine, the Redzikowo base would be a priority target for potential destruction by Russia. While commenting on establishing a new BMD base, Maria Zakharova said, “This leads to undermining strategic stability, increasing strategic risks and, as a result, to an increase in the overall level of nuclear danger.” To conclude, the launch of missiles raises the prospect of nuclear weapons use because these missiles can be equipped with nuclear warheads. Thus, the Ukrainian war is alarmingly escalating in Europe and upending international stability.
—The writer is Prof at the School of Politics and IR, Quaid-i-Azam University.
