ON 20 November 2024, President Donald Trump made history by becoming the first convicted individual to take the oath of office as President of the United States. Despite facing a lengthy legal charge sheet, he was elected by the people of the USA. During his presidency, he will enjoy immunity from prosecution. With majorities in both the Senate and Congress, President Trump is positioned to become one of the strongest Presidents in American history, allowing him to push forward his highly controversial agenda both domestically and internationally.
He had promised a large economic package and the large-scale deportation of illegal refugees. His more outlandish campaign promises included the seizure of the Panama Canal and Greenland, citing national security interests. Greenland, a part of Denmark, a close US ally, was at the centre of these claims. Trump has also repeatedly called for Canada to join the US as its 51st state, though he mercifully declared he would not use military force against the country, a nation of more than 40 million people.
Trump, however, has indicated that he would be prepared to economically squeeze his resource-rich neighbour to make it more amenable to the US’s trade terms. Such a statement, delivered by an elected President of a superpower in the 21st century, sounds like an off-colour joke at best. His campaign promises didn’t end there; he also asserted that he would rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America. Another important theme of his campaign was that America would not only avoid getting involved in foreign wars but also work expeditiously towards ending ongoing wars and conflicts worldwide. In this regard, the war between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the Middle East, would be his immediate priorities. Additionally, another key plank of his policy was the economic and strategic containment of China, with the continued use of India as America’s main pivot against China.
It would be interesting to examine some of the key executive orders Trump signed on his first day in office, as these orders offer a glimpse into his intended direction and approach. These orders can also be compared to his campaign promises. These early orders ranged from climate to immigration along with sweeping pardons for nearly all of those charged with storming the Capitol Hill on January 6, 2021. In his office on the first day, Trump signed an order revoking birthright citizenship. This order was apparently to hit illegal immigrants’ newborn in the US. But granting automatic US citizenship to people born in the country is enshrined in the Constitution. Trump’s order is certain to face legal action and, in fact, such a challenge has already been launched.
Trump also revoked sanctions against violent Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank accused of abuses against the Palestinians. These sanctions were imposed by the Biden Administration, in an unprecedented move, under pressure of some Western allies. I hope this particular order will open the eyes of some Arab Muslims who voted for Trump hoping that he would quickly end the atrocities against the Palestinians. In a way, Trump before he even took office as President, did influence Israel to agree to a ceasefire, something that the Biden Administration could not achieve. Trump can thus start his second term, with reasonable assertion of getting the ceasefire deal in Gaza. The pendulum, over all, however, will swing further in favour of Israel during Trump’s watch.
Some of Trump’s orders were as per his promises, like withdrawal from the Paris Climate Deal. But others, like withdrawal from the World Health Organization (WHO), were a surprise. Trump blamed the inefficiency of WHO during the Covid-19 crises and its failure to act independently of influence of other member states. Trump was also unhappy about the exorbitant payments from the US to WHO that were totally disproportionate to the amounts provided by other larger countries like China. The departure of the US from WHO will jeopardize programs such as the ones tackling tuberculosis as well as HIV/AIDs besides other health emergencies. By removing the US from the Paris Climate Deal, Trump has, in fact, withdrawn the world’s biggest historic emitter from global efforts to fight climate change. The move reflects Trump’s skepticism about global warming which he has called a hoax. This withdrawal fits with Trump’s broader agenda to unfetter US oil and gas drillers from any kind of regulations to maximize output. A significant executive order issued by Trump on his first day in office was the declaration of emergency on the US – Mexico border. This order was as per his campaign promise and to reverse the effects of Biden’s policy on immigration. Trump eventually intends to resume the construction of the border wall between the US and Mexico.
President Trump in his second term intends to bring a quick end to the Russian–Ukraine war and to the escalating defence bill for the US by arming Ukraine endlessly. Trump’s new Russia–Ukraine envoy, Keith Kellog, has said he would like “A solution within 100 days”. One possible way for President Trump to push Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table would be for letting Russia keep substantial Ukrainian territory on which it had historical claims or has a majority Russian speaking population there. President Zelenskyy has indicated he is ready for some compromises.
President Trump’s relations with China will have at least indirect bearing on Pakistan. In face of China’s growing economy and exports to the US, Trump’s threat of tariffs on $500m worth of Chinese goods looms large. Pakistan and US relations, which are already on a back burner, will most probably stay there. These relations will be transactional at best. There is a high probability that the US would pressurize Pakistan, from going too much into China’s orbit. It would be up to Pakistan and its policy makers to not only resist such efforts, but to try and maintain working relations with the US also.
—The writer, based in Islamabad, is a former Health Minister of KP.
