Dr Muhammad Khan
AJAI Shukla, exposed the weaknesses of
Indian military and political leadership in
his opinion article in ‘The New York Times’. The opinion article titled, “How China and India Came to Lethal Blows” revealed that, there has been mysterious silence at Indian Military Headquarters and Prime Minister Secretariat despite India lost 20 soldiers and huge area at the hands of PLA in East Ladakh. The only statement Prime Minister Modi gave while addressing the funeral ceremony of the soldiers was, ‘the death of Indian soldiers would not go vain. There have been no aggressive statements from the firebrand Indian Defence Minister, its Napoleonic military commanders and above all its bellicose External Affairs Minister. After losing so much in term of its acclaimed territory and soldiers, Indian External Affairs Minister agreed to his Chinese counterpart that lets cool down and resolve the issues after tension is lowered. Mr Modi presented India as a peaceful and peace loving country. The reasoning was underlined by Rajiv Pratap Rudy, a spokesman of Mr.Modi’s party who argued on television that the confrontation was “with China, not with Pakistan.” Indeed, India understands the language of power. It tried to back stab China at a critical time, but suffered reverses. Today, Indian military and political leadership is following the instructions issued from Beijing. These are rules of power politics, which Beijing advocate, ‘never give-up your power, the consistency and determination.
For weeks Indian military have been requesting the PLA (Army) to pull out from the heights it has occupied. After cooling-down the situation, on June 20, 2020, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian issued a statement that, the ‘Galwan Valley, which is part of the disputed Ladakh region, is located on the Chinese side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) – de facto border between the two Asian rivals.’ Mr Zhao also blamed Indian Army for the launch of June 15, 2010 attack which killed 20 Indian soldiers. China responded New Delhi that, it (India) it has deliberately caused a provocation which caused tension in region. Contrary to ill-planning of Indian military leadership which believes in hit-and-run tactics, Chinese Military firmly believes in the Art of War by Sun Tzu, who said, “To fight and conquer in all our battles is not supreme excellence; supreme excellence consists in breaking enemy’s resistance without fighting.” Very few Indian know that after 73-day eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation between Chinese troops and Indian Army in Doklam, it was decided that both side will “mutual withdrawal” of their military troops. After initial withdrawal, there was a redeployment of Chinese military in Doklam which is still continuing.
Whatever Indian military and political leadership claimed their victory in Doklam area was indeed the beginning of its defeat, consolidated through East Ladakh military campaign. Indeed, “The general who wins the battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought. The general who loses makes but few calculations beforehand.” The Indian generals miscalculated three things; potentials of Indian Army, correct appreciation of ground and weather and above all under estimation of Chinese military. It is not worth mentioning that, during British India rule, borders between China and India was not clearly demarcated on ground nor could it be delineated on a map. Despite its poor economy and military power, China got hold of Tibet in 1950. India and western powers protested this Indian act but China did not retreated. Over all Indo-China border dispute involves “about 13, 500 square miles in Ladakh and Aksai Chin and about 35,000 square miles in the north eastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which China calls South Tibet.” Like 1962, India has made a failed attempt to consolidate its gains in East Ladak area through deceptive tactics. But, unlike Chanakya (also known as Kau?ilya) realism, the Sun Tzu’s Art of War prevailed in East Ladakh. It says, “All warfare is based on deception. Hence, when we are able to attack, we must seem unable; when using our forces, we must appear inactive; when we are near, we must make the enemy believe we are far away; when far away, we must make him believe we are near.
The loss of Indian acclaimed territory in East Ladakh and the huge loss of Indian soldiers without a formal war can be attributed to superior strategy of China. China has decided not to pull-out its forces from Galwan Valley, since it claimed Chinese sovereignty over the disputed area. Unlike Indian acceptance of few kilometres of Chinese incursion, it is over 100 square km disputed area which has been intruded and captured by Chinese military in East Ladakh. Indian military cannot do anything to regain the lost territories. Since May 5/6, 2020, China has consolidated its gains in the area. The East Ladakh area (Galwan Valley) has strategic significance for China on may accounts. While being in Galwan Valley, China is overlooking the surrounding heights and Indian military movements while effectively blocking any future Indian strategic manoeuvring to approach the Karakorum pass and Aksai Chin. Indeed, Indian military generals and politician made a blunder by undoing special status of Jammu and Kashmir which invited the Chinese wrath. India could have allowed resolution of Kashmir dispute while maintaining the status quo as demanded in UNSC resolutions. Any miscalculation from New Delhi for making intrusion across Line of Control will definitely invite a similar response from Islamabad.
— The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University, Islamabad.
