Whereas Iran gets the discredit of causing escalation between Pakistan and Iran on January 16, 2024, Pakistan gets the credit of de-escalation from the forum of its National Security Committee (NSC) on January 19, 2023. On January 16, 2024, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) also called Army of Guardians of the Islamic Revolution violated Pakistani air space and launched attacked which killed two children and injured few others. Iran claimed that, it has attacked on the bases of Jaish ul-Adl (Jaish al-Adl), an Iranian based militant group which proved factually incorrect since the two children killed were not from any militant group.
It was an uncalled for attacked at a time when there existed normalcy in the bilateral political and diplomatic relationship between Pakistan and Iran. Pakistan balanced the Iranian attack through a precision military attack in Sistan and Baluchestan province of Iran that killed Pakistani nationals of Baloch National Front (BLF), in their hideouts, provided, funded and supported by Iran. In a situation of normalcy in the bilateral relations of brotherly Muslim states, Pakistan never expected any military misadventure from Iran. Indeed, Iran (IRGC) made a deliberate attack on Pakistan, nevertheless, Islamabad waited for any clarification from Tehran which it failed to provide in next forty-eight hours. Rather, some of the Iranian officials boasted and justified Iranian act of aggression while Iranian Foreign Office remained mysteriously silent. Pakistan had no option but to retaliate which it did in the post professional manner.
The question arises as why did Iran attached Pakistan at a critical time once the region is totally and unstable with one sided Israeli war against Palestine; in fact, a genocide of Palestinians. The critics criticise Iran by saying that, Iran could have attacked Israel, rather Pakistan and other Muslim states; Syria and Iraq. Before attacking Pakistan, Iran launched attacks in Syria and Iraq under similar pretexts. The theological Iranian leadership must have deliberated upon the impact and consequences of these attacks. Nevertheless, strategically, these Iranian attacks have exposed Tehran’s aims and objectives at regional and global level. For decades, Iran has been known for using its proxies against regional states for exporting its own theological ideas and destabilizing the regional states to advance its influence.
While doing so, Iran has been refuting the other regional states including Pakistan through pre-emptive strategies and its overt anti-US and anti-west policies. These Iranian policies aimed at attracting public sentiments of all Muslim states against their ruling elites. Iran has been cashing these sentiments by portraying itself as the only Muslim states which stand against Israel and West including US. The factual position is that, Iran has never launched any attack against any western state or the Zionist State of Israel. On the basis of its overt rivalry with Israel, Tehran is using its proxies against all regional Muslim states including Pakistan. Surprisingly, Iran has never used these proxies against Zionist State of Israel. No Israeli national has ever been killed or even harmed by (IRGC) to which analysts question where it is aimed to only destabilize Muslim states through proxy wars.
The simultaneous Iranian attacks against three neighbouring Muslim states has raised some strategic queries like; a) while Israel is undertaking genocide of Palestinians, simultaneous Iranian attacks against its three neighbours are meant for creating a diversion, b) whether Iran is trying to pose itself as the regional power in the Middle East, c) whether Iran is enlarging the war zone in the region, d) whether Iran desires to open another front with these three states in the region to opaque the Israeli aggression and e) whether through these attacks Iran is mobilizing its proxies in the region. In all scenarios, these Iranian attacks have not benefitted Palestinians, the Muslim states in general and above all these are not meant to create a unity among the Muslims. Then, what is real agenda, Tehran and Theological leadership of Iran desires to achieve.
In the recent past, Iranian border guards have killed many Pakistani soldiers and civilians along Pak-Iran border but Pakistani did not escalate the situation. There are many militant organizations, operating against the state and society of Pakistan still stationed in Iranian territory. Indian RAW has been using the Iranian soil for promoting terrorism and separatism in Balochistan for decades. Besides, Iran has been allying with India for decades, which provided the later an opportunity to damage Pakistani interests at regional and global level. Indian RAW Officer, Kulbhushan Jadhav had lived in Iran for decades while he was planning and executing terrorism in Pakistan.
It is worth mentioning that, Pakistan has always maintained a cordial relationship with Iran. It remained neutral during eight years’ war between Iran and Iraq, rather tried to end the war many a time. In the Saudi-Iran rivalry Pakistan made its best efforts to negotiate between two brotherly states. In recent years, there have been many confidence-building measures (CBMs), both at the level of states and the masses. In the changed strategic environment emerging from the concentration of global players in the region, Pakistan and Iran must come closer to each other for taking a common stance on issues of strategic significance, respecting security and sovereignty of each as the most significant aspect. Since both brotherly Muslim states have reiterated their desire to continue their peaceful and cordial relationship, therefore, let’s hope that there is no repeat of any military misadventure in the future.
— The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University, Islamabad.
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