Rizwan Ghani
GOVERNMENT Minister has called for mini
mum common agenda to move the country
forward. I think that it is time to use the agenda to serve the public specifically in terms of economy, jobs, energy security and national interest in next three years. We have Rs1.65 in circular debt. It can be repaid in next three years, end power wastage, stealing and load shedding as part of social and economic developments and climate change policies that could negatively affect our exports. The country can become power surplus by 2022 and end accumulation of new debt that is incurring at the rate of Rs 450bn annually. Without taking remedial measures, no government can overcome the problem of circular debt and allied problems including maintenance of power distribution infrastructure that alone cost America $8bn. A three-step policy can help make Pakistan power surplus country, repay and end circular debt and shift to clean energy. Withhold the return of debt for three years and use the money to give (3-year) loan to public to install renewable energy, install wind turbines and gas pipelines. Roughly 29 million houses can be shifted to solar energy (mostly) in next 6 to 18 months. The installation of two-way meters and fixing of per unit price will allow these houses to sell surplus electricity to national grid. Power generation can become cottage industry, help return loan and export electricity. A transparent legislation and implementation can help get rid of circular debt and IPP and free government from circular debt permanently.
California has started enforcing law of installing solar panels on every new house in 2020. The law was passed in 2018. Germany shifted heating and cooking to renewable energy in the 80s, freeing enough power to boost country’s export ($1.5 trillion in 2018 only). Renewable energy has also played a strong role in making China world’s leading economy including (cheap) export house of the world. India has achieved parity in per unit cost of solar and coal in its quest to boost its “Made in India” plan to support exports as part of country economy. Government should implement law requiring major industries to generate their own power. Alternate energy will allow the government to free more water for agriculture, cut fuel imports and export electricity to its neighbors. If government stops corruption including influence of big oil and other stakeholders in our power sector, implementation of similar ideas will not be a problem. Solar panel schemes for houses failed in UK despite approval of funding for loans due to powerful oil lobby. Germany is continuing with its pipeline with Russia despite US sanctions as self-defeating (24 Dec 2019, China Daily). Those countries that succeeded in implementing renewable energy are now among leading global economic powers. Our politicians including PM will have to walk the talk to serve the public instead of vested stakes. Otherwise, fate of NAP is before us.
The price of gas in the UK has halved to 24.7 pence from 55.63p in December 2019 and average price for 2020 will be 27p due to coming of gas from Russia and Gulf ahead of expected American gas exports to Europe. But Pakistan is paying between £1.27 (£1.5) per unit (Rs/mmbtu). Russia and China have very big gas distribution infrastructure. With the kind of expertise and resources available with both countries, Pakistan can be looking at working gas pipeline in next 10 to 16 months through Central China. Our leaders should visit Beijing and Russia for permanent solution and bring prices down. Similarly, America will also cut prices for market slice in Europe so Pakistan should keep an eye on that also and use Gwadar to provide gas to nearby areas and secure its strategic CEPC with giving trade stakes to other powerful global players. Pak-Iran gas pipeline should also be completed and review our overpriced gas contracts in view of UK gas price cuts by same providers instead of struggling to bring cheap gas and deliver justice (Energy bills for millions of households to fall after gas prices halve, 26 December 2019, the Guardian UK).
In terms of jobs, IT can play a huge role. Macao is the first country in the world to have full 5G coverage since July 2019. Beijing is incorporating 5G technology to improve jobs and economy in rural China with help of domestic consumption based economy instead of mass relocations to lift 700 million people out poverty. If proposed America’s plan of investing one trillion US dollars in China in coming weeks materializes 5G will give foreign investors access to 1.2 billion market as win-win for both countries. It will help return of global cooperation. Islamabad should also use similar steps to bring FDI, create millions of jobs starting with adoption of 5G and training millions of IT technicians and experts with help of short courses offered by Microsoft, Cisco, Oracle and other international companies. IT certificates help get better jobs, higher salaries. A routing and switching technician is earning $1600 dollars in Gulf and certified networking engineer $4000. Only America needs around 7 million IT workers. IT education should be made compulsory for all grade 8 students and onwards starting with networking, making APP and web pages as part of minimum employment policy, opening private business, supporting local economy, expanding 5G to remote areas to improve plight of small farmers, cottage industry and national interests including return of our overseas workers employed on lowest possible wages in difficult job conditions that even locals are not ready to do. Hopefully, politicians will use the agenda offer to solve public problems instead of making another CoD like deal to continue enjoying luxurious lifestyle being funded with taxpayers’ money.
—The writer is senior political analyst based in Islamabad.
