FOR almost half a century, Pakistan provided institutional support to Afghan refugees. After the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Pakistan continued its ad-hoc refugee policies and allowed 700,000 Afghans to settle in Pakistan without additional donor support and assistance from a third-state settlement. In 2021, the Ministry of States and Frontier Region of Pakistan estimated a $2.2 billion cost for hosting these Afghan refugees for the next three years. In 2023, amid a perpetual state of crisis, Pakistan is suffering a host-fatigue due to immense socio-economic, costs coupled with concerns regarding demographic situation and security threats. The Afghan refugee situation, once again has dragged Pakistan at the crossroads. Pakistan’s decision to deport illegal Afghan migrants is steered by necessity.
Firstly, amid economic meltdown, illegal Afghan refugees violated Pakistan’s physical space by perpetrating anti-state activities like smuggling of goods and foreign currency. Pakistan’s caretaker Prime Minister Anwar ul Haq Kakar cited the government’s determination to curb smuggling as the reason for Pakistan to repatriate ‘illegal’ Afghan immigrants. Moreover, Pakistan’s local population is bearing the brunt due to the adverse effect on Pakistan’s social fabric and increased pressure on public infrastructure. In Karachi, Afghan refugees seem to be the cause of social and political unrest. Citizens of Karachi believe that the influx of illegal immigrants is behind rising street crimes. Karachi Police remained handicapped to deal with 2.5 million aliens in its jurisdiction.
Secondly, there has been a stark resurgence of terrorism in Pakistan. According to the statistical report of the Pakistan Institute of Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS) a 79 percent spike was registered in the first six months of 2023. Pakistan’s security managers link Afghan refugees with the recent surge in terrorism. Caretaker Interior Minister Sarfraz Bugti claimed that 14 out of 24 suicide bombings in Pakistan this year were carried out by Afghan nationals. The cost of hosting refugees is unreasonable as it requires a trade-off that increases multi-faceted security risks for the people of Pakistan. Thinking that Pakistan’s actions are driven by any other reason is a mistaken perspective. Pakistan’s decision to repatriate Afghan refugees was among the 20 goals listed in the National Action Plan (NAP) and it is now an absolute necessity considering the economic and security situation.
Thirdly, there is the inaction of the international community. The country was pushed towards this as nobody facilitated Pakistan with financial and institutional support to ensure no new security risks. A state like Pakistan cannot recalibrate its responsibility towards Afghan refugees on humanitarian grounds when developed European states are cautious about conflict and climate-induced migrations in their region. It would be tantamount to the apathy of the international community towards the people of Pakistan if they continue pressurising Pakistan’s government to reverse its decision regarding the repartition of Afghan refugees. This would reflect the gross hypocrisy of Pakistan’s Western partners who themselves selectively welcomes refugees.
However, given the contradictory perspective and gravity of the situation, it is the right time for all the stakeholders to productively engage with each other to address the elephant in the room. Indeed, multiple complexities are shrouding Pakistani government’s changed policy. The operational viability of cracking down on illegal Afghan refugees, amending laws that impede Afghan refugees’ settlements in third states, concerns about other stateless communities in Pakistan, and preserving the honour and dignity of Afghan people are some of the issues that need to be addressed. Pakistan must ensure a sustainable mechanism to deal with these challenges.
However, the onus is on the international community to fulfil its promises to Afghan refugees. International donors and stakeholders must channel the investment to create a conducive environment for voluntary repatriations of illegal Afghan refugees. Secondly, the international community needs to ease pressure on Pakistan by revamping its efforts for third-state settlement of Afghan refugees. Thirdly, the international community should provide breathing space to Pakistan by providing debt restructuring and broadening trade preferences.
Lastly, global investment is needed to develop special economic zones (SEZs) in Pakistani areas near the Afghan border to offer economic security to Afghan and Pakistani people, simultaneously. It will serve multiple purposes. It will help relocate Afghan people from Pakistan’s urban cities to border areas without jeopardising their security. It will decrease security anxieties, and social and political unrest in urban areas of Pakistan as well. There will be no challenge of communal integration as the majority of Pakistani people living near the Afghan border have a shared culture and way of living with their Afghan brothers. The Afghan refugee crisis is a test of the world’s collective conscience. Inducing moral dilemmas for Pakistan will not help until the international community agrees to share the cost of managing Afghan refugees which by all means are facing dicey situation.
—The writer is a Associate Senior Researcher at the Centre for Aerospace and Security Studies (CASS), Lahore, Pakistan.
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