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Israel-Gaza conflict: Geopolitical realities

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IN its ongoing genocidal war against Hamas/Palestinian civilians, in an unprecedented/disproportional response to Hamas’s attack on 7 October 2023, Israel has intensely bombed Palestinian’s residential areas, hospitals, ambulances and refugee camps for eight weeks and killed above 17000 civilians, including more than 8000 children and women, injured above 37000 civilians and displaced 1.3 million civilians from northern Gaza into the southern Gaza. And, after a brief humanitarian pause mediated by Qatar, Israel has again started its intense bombing in the southern Gaza, and the massacre of the Palestinian people continues. As per the world media reports, the world reaction to the continuing Israel-Hamas war and Israel’s genocide of the Palestinians has been as under.

The US and UK have shown strong support for Israel. The US has deployed its aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean Sea in support of Israel and since 3 December 2023 the UK’s military has announced to conduct surveillance flights over Gaza to help locate captives held by Hamas. With the heavy toll of civilian killings in Gaza due to Israel’s indiscriminate bombing, the Biden Administration is facing growing internal dissent over its support for Israel’s military assault on Hamas as the officials feel that Israel should not be able to act with “impunity,” and that the US aid to Israel should not remain unconditional.

The US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin called on Israel to protect civilians in Gaza, calling them the centre of gravity in Israel’s war with Hamas and warning over the risks of their radicalization. Austin said, “He has personally pushed Israeli leaders to avoid civilian casualties, to shun “irresponsible rhetoric” and to prevent violence by settlers in the West Bank. Criticizing Israel for bombing/killing the civilians in Gaza, China and Russia have called for peace talks and a separate state for Palestinians, although at the UNSC, the Russian/China supported resolutions that called for a ceasefire and the release of all hostages were voted down/vetoed by the powers supporting Israel.

President Macron of France, in an exclusive interview, while recognizing Israel’s right to protect itself, said, “There was ‘no justification’ for the bombing, adding a ceasefire would benefit Israel. The UN experts said in a joint statement that Palestinians in Gaza were at “grave risk of genocide.” The Director of the New York Office of the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights has already stepped down because, as he wrote in his resignation letter, “We are seeing a genocide unfolding before our eyes [in Gaza] and the Organization that we serve appears powerless to stop it.” The Amnesty International says, as Israeli forces continue to intensify their cataclysmic assault on the occupied Gaza Strip, it has documented unlawful Israeli attacks, including indiscriminate attacks which caused mass civilian casualties and must be investigated as war crimes.

In protests around the world, in the corridors of the United Nations, world capitals and in the angry chambers of social media, one word is getting louder and louder, genocide of Gaza civilians by Israel. In condemning Israel’s actions, governments in Brazil, South Africa and Colombia, among others, have all explicitly invoked “genocide” to explain their outrage. The OIC condemned the continuing acts of killing, destruction and displacement committed by the Israeli occupation against Palestinian civilians. The OIC FMs have also called upon the EU to undertake all necessary efforts to prompt an immediate and comprehensive ceasefire and bring an end to Israeli aggression against Gaza.

As per the Genocide Watch website, both Israel and Hamas are committing war crimes, Hamas by taking civilians as hostages and Israel indiscriminately killing civilians in the war, as per various provisions of the Geneva Convention. It also says, forced displacement is also a crime against humanity. In view of the above discussed Israel-Hamas war situation and the world response, it is quite evident that this war has highlighted following hard geopolitical realities in the international politics, which the third world/weaker states should understand and recognize. The realism is at the heart of the international relations. The states are ultimately dependent on their own capabilities, or power, to further their national interests, the main being states survival with dignity. Hence, to preserve/further their national interest, states act to gain and use power, without caring for moral/human values. And, this is what Israel is doing.

Due to world’s major/veto powers’ geopolitical differences, the UN/UNSC has not been able to agree on passing a binding resolution to apportion blame on the warring sides on the committal of HR violations and war crimes, and has failed to pass a binding resolution to have a permanent ceasefire/end to the war and implementing a two-state solution. The UNSC cannot be effective in resolving such international disputes, because of the varied interests of its veto members as any member can veto the outcome. Hence, only those issues can be resolved at the UNSC, where all veto powers have the same interest or if they can create a mutual consensus.

The East-West divide over the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy has created differences between Western powers, Russia, and China. This divide, coupled with internal stability and economic issues within OIC/Arab countries, regional geopolitical constraints, and the US/NATO’s reluctance to expand involvement, complicates their ability to influence the situation in Gaza. The balance of power heavily favours the West and Israel, giving Israel significant military superiority with high-tech weapons, resulting in the likelihood of continued conflict according to their will, endangering Palestinian lives in Gaza.

Despite these challenges, Muslim countries, supported by other nations, should consolidate diplomatic and OPEC/trade-based influence. Leveraging global public sentiment in support of Palestinians, they can push for an end to the war. Initiating dialogue with the US/West and Israel is crucial for the resettlement of displaced Palestinians in Gaza and to work towards a two-state solution.

—The writer is also a former Research Fellow of IPRI and Senior Research Fellow of SVI Islamabad.

Email: [email protected]

views expressed are writer’s own.

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