IN February 2022, Dr. Daniel Haines, an associate professor from University of Bristol, United Kingdom suggested Pakistan, not to renegotiate the Indus Water Treaty-1960. He said that, “Renegotiating or repealing the Indus Waters Treaty would be very risky unless the context of India-Pakistan relations changes radically.” In the opinions of may Pakistani well-wishers and experts of India-Pakistan relations as well as experts of water (especially IWT-1960) Dr Daniel’s proposal is very relevant and timely. Unfortunately, there has been no positive change in the bilateral relationship of Pakistan in recent years. Both view each other with lot of skepticism and pessimism on various accounts; mainly because of their internal power dynamics and regional hegemonic designs of India. Historically, there has never been cordiality in their bilateral relationship ever since the decolonization of Sub-continent and partition in 1947.
As a historian and policy analyst Dr Daniel has investigated the environmental policies and politics of South Asia, especially in India and Pakistan. The policy brief of Dr Daniel Haines entitled, ‘Do not renegotiate India and Pakistan’s Indus Waters Treaty’ is based on ground realities and logical conclusions. With respect to water, Pakistan faced very difficult time from 1948 to 1960, since India stopped water flowing into Pakistan by closing water head-works under its control. It is to be noted that, owing to manipulation of Boundary Commission, all head-works in Punjab were given under the control of India to put Pakistan under pressure and restraint. It took over one decade to negotiate and agree upon the Indus Water Treaty-1960 where World Bank played a significant role to finalize the agreement.
Besides, IWT was concluded under unusual circumstances where Western world under United States was very closer to Pakistan. Pakistan was a military ally and partner of the west, thus west had to play this decisive role through World Bank. Today, the situation totally reversed, west is partner and ally of India and New Delhi is at political and strategic advantage compared to Pakistan. Today India is constantly pressurizing Pakistan either to re-negotiate or repeal the IWT-1960. In case Pakistan shows any flexibility over IWT-1960 or allow India to repeal it, Islamabad will be at the political, strategic, economic and social disadvantage. From 1958 to 1960, there existed strong political will in India and Pakistan under the leadership of Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and General Ayub Khan. Their decision over IWT was accepted by masses since there was no major opposition in India and Pakistan at that time. Despite that, IWT-1960 was criticized in both countries for various reasons.
Contrarily, there is no unanimously accepted and visionary leadership in Pakistan which enjoy the support of Pakistani masses. Despite being a dictator, Ayub Khan was respected both at home and abroad. In a way, he was able to secure water of three western rivers of Indus Water System for Pakistan through IWT which is working well till to-date. Indian, Prime Minister Nehru was all out to create water crises for Pakistan. Indeed, downwards flow of water from all head-works was stopped under the order of Nehru. Nehru even wanted to keep maximum share of water for India in the IWT which was rebuffed under the strong Pakistani leadership at that time. Through IWT Pakistan was able to get water of three western rivers which was approximately 80% of the Indus Basin’s water flows. India receives 20% of the Indus Basin’s water through three eastern rivers. In a way Pakistan got the maximum of Indus Basin water which today irked India for re-negotiation. India has issued many notices to Pakistan since 2017 and last one was served in October 2024.
What was done by Pakistani leadership in managing Indus Water Treaty-1960 was a gigantic task by avoiding a joint management of all six-rivers. Pakistan does not have such a leadership at this time to really counter the malicious Indian designs over water issues. Nevertheless, Indian technical team on IWT was able to keep many safeguards for the future water manipulation of Indus Water System. Though the text (articles) of the agreement were very simple and clear for both sides, however, appendixes and annexes of the Treaty had many loopholes (like Boundary Commission/ Rad Cliff Award) which India used for making water storages, water diversions and hydroelectric projects over three western rivers whose water was exclusively meant for Pakistan. Besides, India stopped flow of water in eastern rivers which was essential to maintain the environment all along these rivers. India leaves huge water in these rivers during monsoon and rainy season to flood Pakistan which again is a grave violation of IWT by India.
Indian warnings and notices to Pakistan for re-negotiating the IWT-1960 at this time have many connotations and contexts; a) India can manipulate a politically unstable and economically fragile Pakistan, b) New Delhi may use western influence and institutions in its favour to manipulate Pakistan for a new agreement which may give India advantage over Pakistan for more water share, c) India may use the excuse of wastage of water during monsoons and rainy seasons which Pakistan could not secure owing to less numbers of dams and water storages and d) climate change and water needs for its huge population is yet another excuse which New Delhi may use in its favour.
This is the most crucial and trying time for Pakistan with respect to saving the Indus Water Treaty-1960. Therefore, any future negotiations with India should be within the framework of IWT-1960 without making any compromise on its share of the water of three western rivers. The stakeholders in Pakistan must understand that, it is a well-considered strategy, indeed a trap to renegotiate the IWT-1960. India cannot unilaterally abrogate IWT, since it is under the international guarantees of World Bank.
The writer is Professor of Politics and IR at International Islamic University, Islamabad.
