India, Russia & the West
THE Ukraine War has exposed India’s non-alignment policy. India will not join the West against Putin.
It will follow its national interest while benefiting from both in the geostrategic race for controlling the subcontinent for vested stakes.
How India deals with these challenges will help Pakistan make its economic, trade and foreign policies.
Russia-West standoff will help the world review its policies for the next world order.
Putin visited India before the Ukraine war. He gave them S-400s, tanks and technology to make these tanks.
America threatened sanctions but India still went ahead and supported Putin in UNSC.
It abstained in the UNSC vote on Ukraine war, which shows that Delhi will continue to preserve its relations with Moscow to fulfil its defence needs.
Jay Panda also wants the West to transfer sensitive technology and do co-production of defence equipment with India.
West calls the Indo-Pacific alliance or the Quad a democratic alliance. But it is also a strong military coalition.
Lisa Curtis, the US National Security Advisor during the Trump government said that the US has a vision that India will be the net provider of security in the Indo-Pacific region.
It clears the reality.World has also seen naval exercises of India, America, Japan and Australia (Asian NATO). With the entry of China, there is military importance of Sri Lanka and Solomon Islands.
India has border tension with China. However, at the same time India has $100bn trade with it. Beijing is using trade to keep the door for dialogue open.
It is the test of Delhi to preserve its economy, sovereignty and foreign policy while balancing its relations with China and the West.
It could be a model for the rest of the region.
However, there will be no progress in the region unless India is ready to accept that era of dictation is over for its neighbours also (Jaishankar).
Jaishankar has given a hollow statement. The West can always abandon India against China just like the past.
The news of the Ukraine war could last years is a message to Putin for having a security alliance with China.
It is a message to India also that there is no free lunch in international politics.
If both BJP and Congress fail to play their role, India could face a Sri Lanka like situation for its China policy.
They can withdraw all the privileges, repatriate Indians (Magic Washer) and impose sanctions.
The strategic India-EU partnership is an endorsement of Delhi’s action against Kashmir, “bulldozer” policy and New Citizen Act.
The West is building its relations with India at the cost of international laws, human rights, and liberal democracy, which undermine core values of Western democracies.
West is pushing to give India access to regional markets through Afghanistan and create jobs for them..
India and the West are cheating each other. It will keep its relations with Russia to fulfil its defence needs.
The West will not transfer advanced technology to India to keep it dependent instead of a rival state.
It will change nothing for India because China is already strong in defence six-time and it has an advanced space program.
It is a greedy alliance of political parties to allow private businesses to exploit public resources, Indian market and cheap labour after China.
China is watching the West’s response to Ukraine. Major world capitals are waiting to see if Beijing will decouple its economy from a global system with its own global and regional system for SWIFT banking (CIPS), World Bank (AIIB) and IMF.
Britain and other European countries have already joined AIIB. Now let us see how politicized WB, WTO and IMF save the unprepared democrat market economy against the stable autocratic capitalist economy of China because countries always join any available system.
The Taiwan card will not work against China. Beijing can wait for de facto unification of Taiwan that could automatically be absorbed into the mainland due to the growing size of the mainland’s economy (Fareed Zakriya).
Based on West’s standards in Kashmir, Palestine and EU position on Catalonia, it has no legal or moral authority to challenge China if it attacks Taiwan. The West wants to bring India to UNSC against China to avoid you reap what you sow.
They will betray the West again (Trump’s Afghan Legacy). China has defeated subjugation and humiliation to become a superpower.
Whereas, leaders have weakened western democracy for want of rule of law, justice and merit (Bretton Woods system).
India is copying Israel in Kashmir and discriminating against its minorities like the West. Biden, Scholz or Vonderleyen have shamelessly failed to block Modi and Boris Johnson for discarding moral, legal and democratic norms.
It is forcing the world to look at China as an alternative. Unlike Trump, Biden sidelined Russia and targeted China.
If both Biden and Xi want to continue in Bretton Woods system then they should act as competitors not enemies.
Biden should stop Ukraine war to cut cost of living help Russia reintegrate in Europe for food security.
China should develop alternate world economy to challenge discriminatory sanctions. America should offer a better alternative against China’s belt and road initiative for universal prosperity and peace.
—The writer is senior political analyst based in Islamabad.
