Tariq Khalil
BRAHMINS are minority in India. But in 1860 census by British, the majority of people could not answer to question about religion. The Commissioner then ordered any one not Muslim, Jane, Budh, Christian be termed as Hindu as they worshipped idols. Thus in one stroke of pen, Hindus became majority. This, on ground is not the case. Brahmins and Kashtris are only 20%. Rest are low caste Dalats and others. It was exploited by Congress in early part of 20th century when they claimed be represented of all Indians. A claim challenged by Jinnah and Dakar leadership.
Couple of years back, when Modi’s first government come in to power and its RSS agenda started unfolding, world did not comprehend real motives. In the following years India’s polity drifted in to a dangerous course. At first Modi government sent signals to test world’s reaction, when they noticed meek or subdued reaction, they raised ante. First, they purchased, and at time coerced media. They made inroads in to judiciary. Civil services were purged from elements who were not in consonance with RSS goals. RSS Youth Army was created and RSS doctrine imbedded in their minds and given military training. Members of RSS are inducted in police and now efforts are to make in roads into military. Thus we see Modi in his second term more aggressive. Earlier there were 22 movements in India asking for independence or greater autonomy, 17 were active. Hindu extremism is on the rise in the coming days, is a reality and order of the day.
Modi Government’s new face is of Neo Nazism. Their agenda is no different. Kashmir is in a perpetual state of siege and being bled, not only in IOK but across the line of control by way of cross border violations in which scores of Kashmiris have embraced Shahadat. A disputed territory under UN resolutions has been forcibly annexed and, as expected, World under its own compulsions and strategic milieu looked other way. LoC has been de facto converted in to international border, trampling all bi lateral agreements. Eight million Kashmiris are imprisoned in their own homes with complete denial to human right considerations. The Intifada in Kashmir has by now is showing signs of changing into armed struggle. In recent incidents at two places number of officers and men of Indian army and special police have been killed. No doubt, it will get converted into full fledge struggle. Kashmiris apprehend genocide in the offing since within India the internal polity has also under gone a change. They have been pushed to wall. A new line is propagated that Corona Virus is being pushed by Pakistan not only in Kashmir but India at large. So, it is a Muslim virus.
Also Indian Muslims are being targeted in larger numbers and lynching and killing of Muslims are increasing day by day terming every Indian Muslim a potential terrorist. NRA, has been temporarily pended but not abandoned .In Delhi Azan on speaker is banned and larger number of Muslims are being stopped from going to mosques. Mosques are being rampaged. RSS and BJP stalwarts are now openly propagating Muslims have no space in India. They are emboldened as world is embroiled in COVID-19. Especially battle lines between US and China are now clearly drawn on that issue, so are number of EU countries who are blaming China for the spread of virus. Thus post CORONA world is going to revolve around this central issue. Who will be the world super power. US is not going to let things go the way they are. Mr Trump threats to China are on the rise and that is music to Indians. As a matter of fact threats are now turning in deliberate strategy. Additional tariffs restrictions are on the anvil. Further US elections, North Korea leadership crisis, and growing unrest in Afghanistan all are going to cause sparks in world arena. It’s shadow, in regional context it going to start a new conflict scenario.
Although US commission on religious tolerance has lowered the status of India’s and there are voices to ban certain leadership of India. Pakistan though happy, at least world is awakening, should not remain in any illusion. This is a ruse. It is the real politics which takes centre stage. Post Corona world power grouping has already crystallised and its impact will be there in South Asia. India will be needed by US as part of China Strategic response. Impact on Pakistan will be two fold. Greater pressure and animosity against Pakistan, especially any adventure on LoC can not be ruled out. US pressure against CPEC was there from day one, it is likely US will increase the pressure. There should be no doubt CPEC is going to be driver in post Corona not only for Pakistan but in the regional context. The likely levers will be financial, especially when economy has shrunk at least by thirty per cent. This is to give space to India from its growing internal ruptures.
India’s domestic issues need a diversion. And that is where Pakistan figure out. Pakistan is being blamed for all their ills. Economic, sinking economy, socio political divide, alienating 20% population is going to find its way in home grown resistance initially and terrorism later. Beside Muslims, Sikhs are now being gradually purged from defence forces as well including police and not being posted on sensitive appointments. Already Sikh organisations internationally are agitating so far peacefully, but will not take long for militancy to take root. Even within higher ranks of Indian military fissures will develop. World Sikh organisations already has declared 2020 as year of change.
Assam is up in arms since long seeking independence from Delhi. It is being held together by army. Assam claim religion, culture, demographic breakdown and geography demand separation from main land India. It is same basis on which Pakistan/India partition took place. Their claim is strong and movements are suppressed by force. Same time cataloguing 2 million Muslims as non residents of India has upped the tensions between India Bangladesh. In border areas skirmishes are reported between India Bangladesh Border Security. India Bangladesh romance is also wearing out as gradually Indian business and industrialist has pushed Bangladeshi business houses backward. Now, as ME labour force is being curtailed by UAE states, a la oil crisis and Corona impact on ME economy, returning labour force is going to create socio economic problems in Bangladesh and India.
Down are also Sri Lankan, industrialists who exported through Bangladesh. They are finding economic and financial squeeze. Tamils working in Sri Lanka and Jaffna are likely to return. Tamil socio economic unrest will strengthen. Tamil urge to detach from hard core Brahman rule always remained alive. In this milieu India’s agenda of Hindutva is gradually pushing Indian state to confrontation in the region. There is strong possibility of home grown resistance later graduating to terrorism. The flak is likely to fall on Pakistan. All possible pressures be expected. Indian think tanks view this is right time to create a situation to coerce Pakistan to react and then India has excuse. Impact on Pakistan is evident demanding Pakistan to put internal situation in order. Whereas route to peace lie, India reverting to Secularism as MP Ms Mahua Moitra warned, lest whole subcontinent is engulfed in blood and destruction.
—The writer, a retired Brigadier, is Secretary of Army Reorganisation Committee in the 90s.
