Mohammad Jamil
ON Sunday, Afghanistan President Dr Ashraf Ghani said that he would not free thousands of Taliban prisoners ahead of all Afghan power-sharing talks set for next week. Thus he publically rejected the timetable for the speedy prisoners’ release that was laid out just a day earlier in the US-Taliban peace agreement. President Ashraf Ghani told a news conference that Afghanistan is a sovereign country and this wasn’t a promise that the United States could make. He added that the release of any prisoners was a decision for his government to take and that he wasn’t ready to release prisoners before the start of negotiations. The question is when the US is to pay for the salaries of Afghan Army personnel, the police, and for running expenses of the government, how he can claim that Afghanistan is a sovereign country.
Ashraf Ghani’s statement appears to have been intentionally made to provoke the Taliban, who retaliated with attacks on Afghan forces, as the Taliban had agreed it would not attack the US forces. The US should have given the shut up call to Ghani; instead the US launched an airstrike against Taliban fighters, which could roil the peace deal. Ashraf Ghani had expressed satisfaction when the peace deal was signed, but he started playing the role of a spoiler the very next day. It has to be mentioned that Abdullah Abdullah has rejected the election results and Northern Alliance elements and groups have decided to support the parallel government announced by Adbullah Abdullah. After 2014 elections, in a similar situation, the US had intervened to broker an awkward power-sharing deal between the two rivals by creating a slot of Chief Executive for Abdullah Abdullah.
When Dr. Ashraf Ghani had refused to accept that formula, the US had warned him that there could be re-election, and Ashraf Ghani surrendered. However, Abdullah Abdullah had been complaining all along that the former did not implement the plan by giving it a cover in the Constitution. Anyhow, the US Taliban deal signed last week in Qatar envisions the release of up to 5,000 Taliban prisoners by the Afghan government; the Taliban would release up to 1,000 prisoners ahead of talks between Afghani factions to begin on March 10. The talks could be held in Oslo, as Norway has offered to host the talks. Pakistan played a pivotal role in the historic US-Taliban agreement, which paved the way for an intra-Afghan dialogue and peace in Afghanistan. The US, Afghan government and Mullah Bradar of Taliban appreciated Pakistan’s efforts for peace in Afghanistan.
Anyhow, in marathon negotiations between US officials and Taliban representatives in Doha, which began in 2018, the US had sought guarantees from the Taliban that in exchange for the withdrawal of foreign troops, Afghan soil would not be used for attacks on US interests. The deal came a week after an agreement for “reduction in violence” (RIC), the condition by Washington perhaps to see if Taliban leadership had control over its field commanders. There was also a flawed perception that Haqqani network was not on board, which is not true, as Sirajuddin Haqqani is the deputy leader of the Taliban. In his article in the New York Times expressed the resolve to bring peace to Afghanistan, and also conveyed an impression that the Taliban has changed. He focused on the rights of women and committed to take along all sections of society.
He stated: “Everyone has lost somebody they loved. Everyone is tired of war. I am convinced that the killing and maiming must stop. The Taliban was ready to agree on a new, inclusive political system in which the voice of every Afghan is reflected and where no Afghan feels excluded.” According to US Taliban joint statement, the United States will reduce the number of US military forces in Afghanistan from 13,600 to 8,600, and implement other commitments in the US- Taliban agreement within 135 days of the announcement of this joint declaration and the US Taliban agreement. It was also stated that the Afghan government would engage with the United Nations Security Council to remove Taliban members from sanctions list by May 29. Anyhow, the intra-Afghan talks are likely to begin on March 10, but no specific details have been given.
Apart from Afghan government, there are many groups with different objectives; thus there could be difficulties during intra-Afghan dialogue. But since the US is committed to pay for Afghan army and police, it has leverage over the government and other groups. Anyhow, Pakistan’s position has been vindicated, as it always said that the matter should be resolved through dialogue. It is being acknowledged by international community that without Pakistan’s cooperation, the US-Taliban agreement would not have been possible. Having said that, one must not forget the efforts of Pakistan military in decimating the terrorist’s infrastructure and network in Pakistan; raising a fence on Pak-Afghan border to curtail movements of the militants to and fro Afghanistan.
Furthermore, COAS General Qamar Javed Bajwa, due to military to military relations with Pentagon, played his role in convincing the US for the need of dialogue to bring peace in Afghanistan. With the talks between the US and Taliban, influence of spoilers especially in the form of Indian influence over Afghanistan has waned. Apart from that the Northern Alliance elements and President Ashraf Ghani are at loggerheads and the US will be able to push them to have a meaningful dialogue with Taliban. Whereas Independent Election Commission has declared Ashraf Ghani as officially elected, Abdullah Abdullah claimed victory in the election, bringing the situation akin to 2014.
—The writer is a senior journalist based in Lahore.
