THE Chinese Two Sessions have become a “buzz” word in the international media because of its universal importance, impact, utility and scope.
Even the markets, investors and businessmen around the globe are waiting for the holding of two sessions for finalizing their plans of investment.
Thus it has “immense” geo-economic value for economic globalization, international cooperation, opening-up, modernization, digitalization, artificial intelligence and global shared prosperity.
Additionally, the US President’s inglorious trade tariffs have already put the international trade, economy, industry and supply chain in dire situation requiring a sustained world order for achieving a just, fair and free trading system and holding of this year Two Sessions have “incalculably” enhance its importance for mitigating the spillover socio-economic and geopolitical ramifications of thundering tariffs.
Moreover, the international countries and communities are worried about the US global exit policy leaving it from WHO, Paris Climate Change, Human Right and even from WTO thus holding of the Chinese Two Sessions have become a hot topic in the international mass media. Hopefully, during the annual legislative and political consultative sessions a “slew” of social and economic development goals will be announced. It is predicted that this year focus may be on promotion of high-quality development of the BRI. It seems that this year’s two sessions the third session of the 14th NPC and the third session of the 14th National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), the top political advisory body are set to kick off next week, high-quality development of the BRI has again become a hot topic.
This year marks the 12th anniversary of the BRI. Over the years, the BRI has evolved from a vision into reality and from general framework into concrete projects, becoming the world’s most popular international public good and the largest international cooperation platform. The tone-setting Central Economic Work Conference in December, during which economic work for 2025 was arranged, urged solid progress in high-quality Belt and Road cooperation and improvement in the overseas comprehensive service system. Actually, the Two Sessions refer to the concurrent annual meetings of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), which opens on March 4 and the National People’s Congress (NPC), which begins on March 5. These meetings are expected to conclude on or around March 11.
Both institutions answer to the Chinese Communist Party, led by General Secretary Xi Jinping. The CPPCC National Committee, with 2,169 members, serves as the overarching organization of the United Front system, which mobilizes various social groups to support and advise the Party. Meanwhile, the NPC, with 2,977 delegates, functions as a single-chamber parliament that is, at least notionally, the supreme organ of state power. Now, attention shifts to how much Beijing is willing to boost stimulus, support businesses and respond to Trump’s trade policies. The Two Sessions is expected to reveal a more pro-growth agenda compared to last year, with approximate targets of 5% for GDP growth, 4% of GDP for the fiscal deficit ratio and 2% for consumer inflation. Hopefully, further stimulus will come from roughly 3 trillion Yuan in ultra-long special treasury bonds and 4.5-5 trillion Yuan in local government special-purpose bonds.
Furthermore, measures to boost consumer spending and private-sector innovation will be introduced, although sweeping structural reforms are unlikely due to the government’s focus on high-tech industrial self-reliance. This year’s Two Sessions are expected to further support the private sector with deepened structural reforms and financial incentives, emphasizing sectors like EVs, lithium batteries, green technologies and AI. The government aims to attract more foreign direct investment by opening additional sectors of the economy. A key focus will be the Government Work Report (GWR), presented by Premier Li Qiang on March 5, which will review the government’s performance in 2024, outline priorities for 2025 and set major policy tasks. The report will likely highlight growth, deficit and inflation targets, shaping China’s economic trajectory for the year ahead.
In summary, the Chinese Two Sessions have become a global economic stimulator, facilitator and barometer for their global economy. Evidently it has become a beacon of hope for the Global South and developing countries to jointly work for achieving the desired goals of socio-economic prosperity and sustainability. It is estimated that stronger fiscal stimulus, calling for a “more proactive fiscal policy” and an enhancement of “extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments will be announced. The policy makers will pledge to increase the fiscal deficit ratio” and prioritize “vigorously boosting consumption, improving investment efficiency and expanding all-round domestic demand.
China will likely maintain a GDP growth target of “around 5 percent for the third consecutive year. Provincial governments, which present work reports to local parliamentary gatherings ahead of the Two Sessions, have set growth targets with a weighted average of 5.1 percent. Moreover, meaningful measures will be announced for stimulating property market correction, consumer sentiment and strained local finances. It is suggested that Beijing should expand fiscal stimulus, lower bank reserve requirements and cut interest rates. The more U.S.-China trade and technology tensions escalate, the more aggressively Beijing may implement stimulus measures. Many official reports indicate that the Chinese policy makers will set a record high fiscal deficit ratio target of 4 percent of GDP implying an additional 1.3 trillion Yuan in spending within the general budget.
—The writer is President, Pak-China Corridor of Knowledge, Executive Director, CSAIS, regional expert: China, CPEC & BRI.
(mehmoodulhassankhan@yahoo.com)
