BY standing with international law, world leaders have put expansionist Trump on the defensive. On Greenland, German Chancellor Scholz affirmed that borders are inviolable, while French Foreign Minister Barrot emphasized that Europe will defend international law and protect EU sovereignty. Back home, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and top Democrats opposed Trump’s bid to take over Greenland, underscoring that buying, selling or seizing territory violates international law.
Denmark’s leadership preempted Trump’s attempts by asserting Greenland’s independence, while dismissing the likelihood of its union with the US. This move checkmated Trump’s plan for unfettered military use of the island ahead of Greenland’s local elections in April 2025. A meeting between senior Danish and US officials is now anticipated to update post-World War II security agreements. However, Trump’s national security adviser stated that the Greenland pursuit is “about the Arctic.”
The melting ice around Greenland has elevated its geopolitical significance by opening new trade routes. Trump’s push for control coincided with his son’s visit to Greenland and PM Egede’s New Year remarks about breaking the island’s colonial shackles. This has drawn warnings from Germany and France against any use of force.
Trump’s Greenland ambitions reflect the hypermodern reality of climate-driven geopolitical transformations, with the US, China and Russia competing for dominance in the Arctic. Europe’s united response has isolated Trump diplomatically and exposed the limitations of his tough rhetoric. If Greenland is central to Arctic trade routes, Trump needs trade deals, not aggression. Europe’s reaction underscores the importance of economic partnerships over coercion. Meanwhile, Trump’s earlier rejection of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) highlights his inconsistent trade strategy.
Domestically, Trump’s proposal to annex Canada has also backfired politically. Adding Canada’s congressional representation would shift electoral dynamics heavily in favor of Democrats, leaving Republicans at a disadvantage. Additionally, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum rebuked Trump’s suggestion to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America, citing historical ties and international recognition of the name. Climate change has also reduced Panama Canal shipping traffic, necessitating alternative trade routes rather than competitive takeovers. Complementary infrastructure, including rail systems and maritime routes, could mitigate these challenges.
Trump’s push for NATO allies to spend 5% of GDP on defence will likely fail, as EU democracies prioritize voter accountability and alternative alliances, including strengthening the EU’s defence force or cooperating with China and Russia. Similarly, Trump underestimates India’s independent foreign policy, including its Arctic collaboration with Russia and trade with China. The US must recalibrate its approach, particularly by strengthening ties with Pakistan to maintain a strategic balance in South Asia for global stability.
—The writer is senior political analyst based in Islamabad.
