EUROPEAN officials and professionals in public policy are expressing their worries and planning for the consequences of a second Trump administration as the idea of his return to the White House gathers steam. The head of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, has called the prospect of Trump’s re-election a “clear threat” to the continent. This view is shared across Europe; for example, Belgium’s Prime Minister, Alexander De Croo, has warned against putting “America First” and has stressed the need for European independence.
The warnings are based on thorough studies and not only political bluster. The former prime minister of Sweden, Carl Bildt, paints a bleak picture in an article published by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) that includes the United States pulling out of climate agreements, the growth of fossil fuels, a defunct NATO and intensified trade conflicts. According to these forecasts, the globe will see the disruption of long-standing ties and promises.
Europe has a multipronged strategy to prepare for this kind of future. German Marshall Fund analyst Sudha David-Wilp argues that in the face of possible protectionist measures enacted by a second Trump administration, Europe must strengthen its military might and position itself as a formidable economic actor. A senior German legislator named Jürgen Hardt has voiced his displeasure with Europe’s passive foreign policy, citing the continent’s failure to establish a united approach against China and its failure to honor military budget commitments as examples. Trump’s conflicted feelings toward NATO further complicate matters. The future of transatlantic security cooperation is cast into doubt by his dubious views and previous threats to depart from the alliance. Anecdote from EU Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton illustrating this skepticism: he remembers Trump’s disturbing remarks about not backing Europe in case of an attack.
Josef Braml of the Trilateral Commission described European unity and financial solidarity as the reaction to such a situation. He suggests a radical plan to share the continent’s debts and give individual governments financial aid to make Europe more robust and independent. But worries about nuclear defence go beyond traditional military relationships. The deal’s future regarding Trump’s return is uncertain since European nations depend on U.S. fighter planes for their nuclear capability. Braml proposes more economic and military cooperation among European countries as a defence.
But CDU lawmaker Hardt thinks the United States pulling up its nuclear umbrella is very unlikely since it would start a new nuclear arms race. But he does concede that, should U.S. policies change, European countries may consider increasing their nuclear arsenals. Essentially, the unity of Europe and transatlantic ties are being tested by the possibility of Trump’s re-election. A Trump 2.0 presidency poses severe difficulties to Europe, prompting the continent to reevaluate its reliance on other countries, strengthen internal relationships, and prepare for a potentially drastically altered geopolitical scenario.
—The author is Director ORIC and an assistant Professor at the Department of International Relations, MY, University, Islamabad.
views expressed are writer’s own.
