Shabbir Ahmed
CLIMATE change looks set to slow productivity only in the world’s poorest nations, ac
cording to research from La Sapienza economists. It warns that the world’s hundred poorest countries will be 5% worse off by the end of the century than they would have been without climate change, wiping trillions of dollars from the global economy every year. Several other previous studies have predicted that climate change will impact productivity growth which is a major factor in long-run economic growth across the globe. According to MunichRe, inclement weather events have cost over $1.5 trillion globally since 1980. Scientists have estimated that if temperature only rose 2°C, global gross domestic products (GDP) would fall 15%. If temperature rose to 3°C, global GDP would fall 25%. If nothing is done, temperature will rise by 4°C by 2100. Global GDP would decline by more than 30% from 2010 levels. That’s worse than the Great Depression, where global trade fell 25%. The only difference is that it would be permanent. The World Employment and Social Outlook estimated that climate change threatens over one billion jobs. Natural disasters have already cost about 23 million working life years in the last two decades.
It is now a well-established fact that developing countries are more likely to disproportionately experience the negative effects of global warming. Not only these countries have naturally warmer climate than those in the developed world, they also rely more heavily on climate sensitive sectors such as agriculture and forestry. Pakistan is one of those countries that are at the forefront of drastic effects of climate change. Pakistan is likely to face more flooding, droughts, warming temperature and other intense weather events. We have already experienced one of the hottest spells of weather of the history this summer. Some of the vast agricultural lands are vulnerable to rising sea levels which will reduce crop production to a greater extent. Food security will be a major challenge due to droughts and shifts in rainfall. Water scarcity is probably one of the worst impacts of climate change on Pakistan. Loss of snow melt from the Himalayas will also reduce the flow of water into the rivers. Rising temperature along with limited water availability will lead to declining crop yields. The country might struggle to produce sufficient food for domestic consumption. Since agricultural products form a major share of Pakistani exports, a drop in production will also lead to exports’ reduction. It is less likely that the country may develop drought resistant crops due to lack of research funding. The country’s tourism sector has gained a boost in the recent past and it is generating decent revenues. However, climate change events may adversely affect tourism sector in the future.
The frequency of extreme weather events has already increased in Pakistan which will rise further in future. It will weigh on government budgets. The aftermath of natural disasters often falls on authorities that are forced to spend vast amounts on clear-up operations and healthcare costs that come with experiencing extreme weather. These extra costs will harm the economic growth prospects of the country. It might also dent the country’s capacity to rebuild in the long-run. The time required to recover from natural disasters will be prolonged and if longer than the frequency in which such disasters occur, the country’s economy could remain in a constant state of reconstruction. Developed countries may also not be able to help us in the long-run. They are already facing an increasing strain on domestic budgets, which is why fewer resources in the form of aid and economic development funds will flow to developing countries. These countries will also be forced to channel resources away from productive and growth-enhancing projects towards countering the costs of extreme weather. The United Nations recommended that the world limit its average temperature to 2°C above pre-industrial levels. It has already surpassed 1.5°C. The accord’s goal is to keep global warming from rising 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Many experts consider that the tipping point. Beyond that climate change becomes unstoppable. Even if all countries follow the Paris Agreement, temperature will continue to rise. The atmosphere is still reacting to the CO2 that’s already been pumped into it. As a result, measures need to be stricter to reverse global warming.
First, we need to plant trees and other vegetation to halt deforestation. Secondly, we as individuals and as a nation need to become carbon neutral. The average individual emits tons of CO2 per year. According to Arbor Environmental Alliance, 100 mangrove trees can absorb 2.18 metric tons of CO2 annually. The average citizen would need to plant hundreds of mangrove trees to offset one year’s worth of CO2. We also need to reduce our meat consumption. Livestock production is one of the major sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Cows create methane, a greenhouse gas. Monoculture crops to feed the cows causes deforestation. Greenpeace has highlighted the fact that switching to plants-based diet is one of the best solutions to global warming because the production of meat-based food items creates enormous amounts of greenhouse gases. We also need to reduce food waste. According to the Drawdown Coalition 26.2 gigatons of CO2 emissions would be avoided globally if food waste was reduced by half. Similarly, we must cut fossil-fuel use. Where available, we need to use more mass transit and biking. It’s time to punch that red alert button to push everyone to lower their carbon emissions before it becomes too late.
—The writer is freelance columnist.
