MIRZA ASLAM BEG
VIOLATING the seven decades old UN Resolu tions, the Strategic Defense Partners of United States have unitarily imposed Peace Plans on Kashmir and Palestine, establishing dangerous precedence for the Muslim world. In fact, two different conflict zones now have been established with different logic of conflict emerging that would determine future course of events in the region. The internal dynamics of the Kashmir freedom movement are strong, now taking it to a boiling point, which cannot be suppressed by force. So far it is peaceful, but will soon turn violent, as brutalities continue unabated. Jehadi groups from within would emerge, joined by the jehadis of the world similar to what happened inAfghanistan during the wars against Soviet and American occupation. Whereas the steps Modi has taken to assimilate occupied Kashmir, cannot be reversed either, thus the conflict would drag on with more death and destruction taking place. Khalistan Movement would become alive, causing a lot of pain to the soft under-belly of over 800,000 Indian troops deployed in the IoK. Pakistan’s’ policy of “Not joining others wars” will also be put to test. The Palestinian Movement’s internal dynamics are weak. Their leadership is divided. The Palestinians appear reconciled with their fate, and would prefer that: “Merely staying on the land, with steadfastness would be an act of resistance and a long-term challenge to Israel. “What do I need a state for, if it does not give me more than I already have.” Thus a weak and divided Palestinian leadership and half the Arab world supporting Trump’s Peace Plan, has emboldened Mr. Trump to impose a solution, “as if the Palestinians have no voice, no rights, trapped in a detention camp. The world does not hear their narrative, nor see their realities.” Trump’s “Vision for Peace” permanently deprives the Palestinians of their participation in the negotiations and deprives them of their land, liberty and dignity. The deal also approves Israel’s existing annexation of East Jerusalem. All terms and conditions are to be accepted within four years, otherwise Israel would plunder more territory. It is the plan worked out in Israel by Trump’s son-in-law andthe USAmbassador David Friedman. Everything about the planis farcical “glubbly accepted bytheAmerican President, so quickly for so littles.” Palestinians are torn over whom to protest against: “Do we overcome our internal problems with Abbas first or with Israel.” The serious ramification of the Peace Plan is its “connect with Iran”, after assassination of General Qasem Soleimani,Al-Quds commander, adding a new dimension to Palestinian logic of conflict. Americans never believed Iran could retaliate so boldly,in Iraq againstAmerican military bases and could shoot down the American high-tech reconnaissance plane in Afghanistan. Under shock, Israel pleaded with America not to escalate the situation for fear of a war which could cause existential damage to Israel. The Muslim world is divided. Even the OIC is not prepared to allow Iran to attend the conference, because it does not suit the Saudis who also dissuaded Prime Minister Imran Khan, not to attend the Kuala Lumpur conference which could create a vibrant and effective platform attending to the problems of the Muslim world in a more effective manner. Yet it is a matter of pride that Iran, which has been demonized and brutalized for the last four decades, has been able to maintain its dignity, pride and a powerful fighting spirit to challenge the superpower of the world. With the first “punishing blow” of only 22 missiles, against American basesin Iraq caused brain concussion damagetoAmerican soldiers hiding deep into concrete bunkers, came as a rude shock to the Americans. In this context imagine the impact of thousands of rockets and missiles raining over Israel. Let’s examine the likely scenario. A new kind of asymmetric war is lurking over Israel against which the Israeli army has no defence. It is a threat which combines the 2006 Hezbollah-Israel war technique which Israel lost, with 2015 Taliban battle for Kunduz in Afghanistan. Simply stated: This asymmetric war against Israel, in the first phase, would begin with massive use of free flight rockets, missiles and drones from several directions to degrade the iron-dome air defence system and the public morale, followed by explosive loaded vehicles to breach the barrier at multiple places and the suicide bombersinthousands rushing forwardthroughthe breachto cause fear and panic and rout to the enemy. Israel was warned well in time about the threat from Hezbollah, but they did not care and suffered a shameful defeatin 2008.They are being warned now aboutthethreat from Iran, and they better care. Therefore, forAmerica and their proxies Israel and India, the choice is very clear, either to pursue the Modi and Trump peace deals or engage with the Kashmiris and Palestinians to evolve honourable solution, acceptable to all concerned. — The writer, a retired 4-star General, is former COAS, Pakistan Army
