THE aerial clash between Pakistan and India on the night of May 7 marks a significant evolution in modern air warfare.
The air combat featured around 125 fighter jets from both nations, making it the largest and longest dogfight in air warfare history.
Pakistan relied heavily on Chinese made J-10C, a 4.5-generation, single-engine jet equipped with PL-15 long range air to air missile, which proved significantly effective as it shot down five aircraft including three Rafales and two Russian-designed fighter aircraft, a MiG-29 and a Su-30.
Though this has been denied by the Indian side, the US and French intelligence sources, along with visual and auditory evidences provided by the Pakistan military officials, confirms that at least three Rafales have been shot down.
Moreover, the tremors were felt by the financial markets with shares of Dassault Aviation plummeting while shares of Chengdu Aircraft Corporation surging, further underscoring the boost in investor confidence in the combat performance of J10c fighter jet and marks the real world validation of J10c, placing them as cost-effective and battle-proven alternatives to Western aircraft.
Furthermore, the incident marked the paradigm shift from closed in dogfighting towards Beyond Visual Range or BVR duels, with the extensive use of PL-15 missiles which has shot down Indian jets, in their own airspace, over 200 km away.
Additionally, the PAF has used the AWACS to enhance the J10c’s effectiveness by intercepting targets without activating the jets radar thereby maintaining stealth and tracking Indian jets in earlier flight patterns.
The J10c contain systems similar to the KG300G or KG600, jammers capable of interfering with enemy radar and communication systems by manipulating radar signals, creating false targets and overwhelming sensors, instrumental in disrupting Rafale’s SPECTRA, thereby underpinning a level of technological prowess in electronic warfare, hence highlighting Pakistan’s adoption of network centric warfare doctrine and reiterating that it is not the jet that wins the battle but the network behind it.
Though the Rafale and J10c both represent the apex of 4.5-generation fighter jets, the French aircraft has long been celebrated to be in a league of its own.
Military experts have termed its twin-engine, more robust airframe capable of carrying a wider payload, cutting-edge avionics, emphasis on electronic warfare, use of Meteor air-to-air missile, Rafale has been termed as invincible.
However, this combat and the downing of three Rafales have rattled this bold assumption and has shared a fate similar to that of the Titanic.
Furthermore, it has changed the dynamics of the global arms industry and defence market as the Chinese air combat system has displayed its battle capabilities.
Military analysts, globally, consider this to be a strategic victory for China, in the realm of superiority of airpower and weapons.
Rafale, seen as the crown jewel of Western aerospace manufacturers, was outclassed with the use of Chinese J10cs and PL-15 missiles, thereby marking the real world success of its fighter jet-missile combo which the US F35 or European Typhoon is yet to achieve.
This has proven to be bad optics for Western fighter jets and has boosted Beijing’s credibility in the global arms market with emerging economies like Bangladesh, Arab nations and even Latin American states looking to purchase J10c as an affordable and alternative option.
Moreover, its noteworthy that this conflict and the historic superiority enjoyed by Chinese weapons rings bells of clamour for the West as it need to reassess the PLA’s air capabilities, which may even be surpassing the level of US air power deployments in the event of a Taiwan contingency,”
This historic loss to India is a direct challenge to its so-called regional Air superiority doctrine.
India has long relied on technological superiority in the form of Rafale and Su-30 to dominate the sub-continental airspace, however, the downing of two jets in 2019 and around 6 in the recent dogfight undermines this assumption.
In addition, this underlines PAF as a premier air force in the Global South which displayed its tactical mastery with the use of AWACS and BVR missile integration with precision.
Therefore, PAF with smart jets procurement, tactical evolution by prioritizing electronic warfare has changed the strategic regional air calculus.
Interestingly, the JF-17 Thunder has become a hot selling product in Central Asia and Africa and most recent deal of Azerbaijan ordering 40 warfighters from Pakistan vividly reflecting technological superiority of PAF and China.
Furthermore, Indonesia has changed its decision of buying Rafael and subsequently booking the Chinese J-10c highlighting increasing popularity and acceptance of the Chinese war gadgetry in the South East Asia and beyond.
Pakistan is expected to receive the first batch of fifth generation stealth fighter jet J35A in the second half of 2025.
This historic breakthrough would allow PAF to possess true stealth capability, allowing them to penetrate the Indian defence system, which has already been useless considering the destruction of S-400 by Pakistani fighter jets under the operation Bunynan Marsoos.
Pakistan acquiring J35 would be a tectonic shift, coupled with AWACS and BVR missiles would reshape the South Asian air dynamics taking PAF a decade ahead of Indian Air force.
—The writer is Executive Director: The Centre for Knowledge and Public Policy.
