THE wars in Ukraine and Russia, and between Iran, the US and Israel, have exhibited all the ways warfare has changed in the 21st century. Armies and dozens of aircraft carriers have been relegated to secondary status. Drones and missile induction in war have made these carriers extremely vulnerable. Abraham Lincoln withdrew. Massing up of armies and conventional air warfare have been left behind. Not that their importance is gone, but a new role has emerged. The extent of the battlefield is not confined or localized to a few axes. The whole country is at the mercy of missiles and drones. The consequent damage to civilian infrastructure, besides military targets, is enormous and devastating economically and torturously painful for human beings who shelter less or are killed within an hour. In one report, $600 billion in damage has occurred in Ukraine. Drone technology is advancing tremendously. It has new dimensions and introduces AI. It is cheaper compared to missiles worth millions of dollars.
The Iran-US MOU is digitally signed. The world has taken a sigh of relief. Fifteen countries were involved and the whole global economy is suffering. Unfortunately, America violated the signed accord soon after. It commenced massive attacks, causing damage to industrial and civilian infrastructure. US missiles are still going. Six months look like two years. Iran resisted through cheap drones and long-range missiles integrated with state-of-the-art target acquisition systems involving space. The hits were accurately aimed at multi-million-dollar defence architecture. For the first time, Israel is facing the agony of war. The losses to the world exceed trillions of dollars, besides the losses to the warring parties in equipment and logistics of the battle. Yet there was no physical trespassing on any borders, even between Iran, the USA and Israel. Yet the world is suffering, not of its own doing, but from the aggressive actions of three countries attacking Iran, totally unprovoked, when diplomacy was progressing fairly well. The deal was insightful.
The war that followed is a new kind of war in which there were no troops involved in a kinetic sense. No boots on the ground, yet it is most destructive and destroys infrastructure, military installations and power structures without entering each other’s space by land or sea. A new kind of war has emerged in which dominance is exercised through missiles and drones anchored on space communications, satellites and ultra-jamming techniques employed to blind the enemy. It is a unique combination of multi-domain warfare. Thousands of people die and billions worth of infrastructure are gutted, yet there is no physical troop presence. It is a unique combination of multi-domain warfare. It is not necessary to be physically present to hit the core areas of the enemy kinetically, operationally, psychologically, through communications and, above all, economically. The needs of 21st-century warfare are of different types. Multi-domain warfare requires a threshold of intelligence information above normal. Cyber technology, communications, cyberspace and space satellites play key roles and are assumed to be principal tools.
Human intelligence remains necessary; there is a limit to technology. The quantum of intelligence is different, transformed and in the field for both the attacker and the defender. It is multifaceted. It requires aggressive external intelligence about the enemy. It also requires extensive counter-intelligence, incorporating all the technological domains to ensure that the enemy does not have the room and space to attack in tandem. The evolution of battlefields from the 18th to the 20th century was gradual; the 21st-century battleground is entirely different, vibrating and evolving. Technology changes the spectrum every day. It also shows that resources, both civil and military infrastructure, in all five domains need to be seamlessly integrated. It makes modern war extremely expensive, destructive and complicated. The entire country is at the mercy of enemy attacks by way of drones and missiles. The Ukraine-Russia war and the Israel-US-Iran war have unfolded the future battle scenario. Drones and missiles rule the battlefield.
Aircraft carriers have become sitting ducks and had to be withdrawn to safe areas. No city is safe, even thousands of miles away, and the distinction between military and civilian infrastructure has diminished. Almost city over city, residential blocks stand demolished from missile hits. The collective damage is enormous. The Ukraine and Iran battles established a new normal in which conventional war can be affordable under the umbrella of a nuclear shield. The age-old principle of concentration of forces is no longer valid. Large-scale or battalion-level forces are visible from the sky through military and commercial satellites 24 hours a day. They will be subject to attack the moment they are detected. The 18th- and 19th-century principle of concentration is dead in modern warfare. Dispersion is the key now. Even companies are to avoid detection. Similarly, the distance between soldiers is increased to minimize casualties. Two-thirds of soldiers carry equipment to fire drones. Wireless silence is key to survival. The role of armour is limited to occupying land once missiles and drones soften the area. Artillery is still relevant, since 72–75 per cent of casualties occur due to sustained artillery fire.
The days of towed artillery are over; it has to be self-propelled to avoid counterattack. The timing has reduced to 30 to 40 seconds instead of 30 to 40 minutes to get the counterattack once it opens up. Camouflage and digging have come back to protect against counterattacks and aerial drone attacks. Thus, the battlefield is multi-domain. The pressures become more relevant in modern warfare. Cyber attacks can freeze the enemy’s economic engine and force him to seek peace. The objective is to squeeze the resources of the enemy to a capitulation stage, forcing surrender or securing favourable leverage in negotiations.
—The author is a decorated Brigadier (Retd) with 32 years of combative experience and 31 years of corporate experience.
